Hi PokerSam,
No one likes their errors publicly thrown at their face. It's pointless. When you feel like wondering on the "other side", do so, but try to post something about the market instead of personalities involved.
Gold and silver were supposed to fall apart but they didn't. Oil, whether crude, heating or gasoline is hitting all time highs. 10-year treasury yields hitting new highs. Geopolitical tensions are reaching breaking points. Dollar seems to be finally moribound.
But... equity indices can still be saved with loose fed money that we no longer get told about. I'm picking puts on three
different fronts cheaply:
- consumer spending related companies and indicies (RTH)
- real estate
- anything that gets hurt with interest rate raises
I think US is about to face the perfect storm of:
- expectations of corporate profit growth is trending down!
- consumers are finally reaching the limit of their ability to borrow for spending and a lot of their debt is at floating rates.
- We are coming to months with rates on the first variable mortgages resetting to reflect the current interest rates environment
- real estate bubble is ready to burst
- companies still have difficulty in passing increasing costs on
- federal government has no ability control the current account deficit
In other words, we are at the top of the cycle and the down turn is just around the corner.
It's nice on paper that core inflation that excludes about everyting that actually eats the salary of the normal person is not alarming, but at the end the Joe and Jane averages make the majority of the economy and they are getting hit with increasing fuel, food and energy costs. They've been able to live off unsecured credit, but that tap is turning off.
Note that if you look at US indices relative to either gold, oil, yen, gbp, euro, the bear market rally hardly exists. It was just asset price inflation.....
AI
