Wednesday, October 29, 2014 8:54:41 AM
Nabbbss's 2014 Election PREDICTIONS: The House—Reaffirmation.
Going into Nov. 4, Republicans currently Hold 235 Seats -- a
17-Seat Majority, to 200 Demo Seats. (There are several Vacancies
by Retirement, Resignation, or Death [both Parties]. I am merely
rounding-off the "numbers.")
GOP Historical Synopsis: In the Great Wave of 2010, the GOP Net-Gained
63 Seats -- a Modern-Day record -- to give them a 242-Seat Majority.
This was the largest GOP Majority since the 1947-1949 Majority of 246 Seats.
In 2012, the GOP Net-Lost seven Seats, resulting in their current
235-200 Seat Majority. Therefore, the GOP/Conservatives need ONLY
to Net-Gain eight Seats to surpass their substantial 2010 242-Seat
Majority. A Net-Gain of eight Seats will produce a 243-Seat Majority.
The sheer quantity of ALL 435 House Seats being up for re-Election
necessitates that mainly Demo Seats that are Vulnerable to GOP/Conservative
pick-up for 2014 will be selectively and specifically mentioned here
(along with several notable Holds).
NOTE: For any given Race, you may Google or Wiki to learn more!
On November 4, 2014, the KEY (and Bellwether) HOUSE RACES, and LIKELY
or POSSIBLE GOP PICK-UPS TO WATCH are:
--- WV-3 (West Virginia House District 3)-- Demo Incumbent Nick Rahall,
aka Nick-Joe Rahall -- the youngest-Elected (1976, 18-Terms for
38 years as-of Nov.2014) and longest-serving Democrat -- will at long last
come crashing down with a thud. It's truly and literally been a
multi-generational reign for Rahall over the long-suffering and besieged
populace in this coal-and-railroad-based District. Over the decades,
Rahall has done so many personal/political favors for SO MANY Voters
that his downfall has been delayed by at least a decade, but THIS TIME
he will fall...to Republican Evan Jenkins.
Nabbbss says: Jenkins Wins it 52-48, as beleaguered Voters finally
cast-off Rahall's multi-tentacled, seemingly never-ending grasp.
--- AZ-2 -- Demo Incumbent Ron Barber, after one Term, Loses to
Martha McSally. This is her 2nd attempt and IMO, it's 95%+ likely
to be successful, as she Lost in 2012 by appx. a thousand Votes.
Barber is/was Gabby Giffords' Field Director until she was tragically
shot and brain-damaged at an open-air appearance in her Eastern
Tucson District. McSally is the first female American Fighter Pilot to
enter enemy territory, among many Honors and Achievements. Given
the likely drop-off in Democratic participation, this race now belongs
to McSally. She will launch a lengthy Congressional Career and will
receive a plumb assignment to a Seat on the Armed Services Cmte.
Nabbbss says: McSally Wins! She is a genuinely needed and welcome
addition to the House. She Wins 53-47.
--- WV-2 -- Alex Mooney (R) is neck-and-neck with Nick Casey for
this Open Seat formerly held by newly-Elected WV GOP Senator Shelley
Moore Capito. (YAY!)
Nabbbss says: Given the prevailing near-Wave GOP trend this year
AND the habit of WV's 2nd District Voters of Voting for a Republican
Congressperson, Mooney Wins this Race 54-46. (Note that this Race
represents a HOLD, not a Net pick-up for the GOP.)
--- NY-21 (Upstate NY) -- Plucky, personable, persistent Elise Stefanik (R)
takes this Open District from Demo clutches. It's a nice, welcome turnover
in a NY District that's as far-removed from Manhattan as can be imagined!
Nabbbss says: Ms. Stefanik picks-it-up and Wins by 52-48.
--- IL-12 (far-Downstate IL) -- GOP'er Mike Bost will handily grab
this Seat from Demo Incumbent William Enyart.
Nabbbss says: Bost takes it 53-47.
--- IL-10 (far-Northern Chicagoland up to WI Border) -- Robert Dold (R)
is engrossed in a very hard-fought struggle with Inc. Demo Brad Schneider.
Things have lately been looking UP for Challenger Dold.
Nabbbss says: Republican Challenger Dold ekes it out 50.8 to 49.2.
--- AZ-1 (Northern AZ and far-Southeastern Phoenix 'burbs) -- Demo
Inc. Ann Kirkpatrick is in the real (Political) "OK Corral" of her career
here, against Republican Challenger Andy Tobin, and in THIS year,
the edge goes to Tobin in this otherwise nearly-balanced AZ District.
Nabbbss says: Tobin claws his way to Victory 51-49, making-for
a TWO-SEAT turnover (with AZ-2) in this essentially Conservative State.
--- HI-1 (yes, Hawaii 1st District!) -- Charles Djou (R) is waging
an unprecedented and seldom-seen (in this Demo-dominated State)
close Contest against Demo Mark Takai, for this Open Seat. This
District is composed mainly of the Honolulu Urban Metro area.
(Hawaii's 2nd District is a small portion of Oahu and all the
Outer Islands.) Against all odds, well, we can always HOPE (this year)!
Nabbbss says: In a shocker to both Islanders and Mainlanders, the
Republican Djou Wins it 50.6 to 49.4!
--- MN-8 (Northern Minnesota's arrowhead region) -- Challenger
Stewart Mills is taking-on and -- if polls can be believed -- beating
Inc. Demo Rick Nolan.
Nabbbss says: Republican Mills clobbers the hapless Nolan 53-47.
--- AR-2 (Little Rock and some surrounding Counties) -- In this Open
District, GOP'er French Hill and Demo Patrick Henry (!) Hays have been
ferociously scratching-and-clawing each other. As is often said, "The
trend is your Friend," and that holds here as well, YAY!
Nabbbss says: French Hill beats Demo Hays 51-49.
--- VA-10 (Far-Western D.C. Virginia-based 'burns incl. Loudin County) –
In a GOP HOLD (from Retiring Republican Frank Wolf), Barbara Comstock (R)
(you'll recognize her if you're a long-time Fox News viewer) looks to edge-out
DEMO John Foust.
Nabbbss says: Ms. Comstock HOLDS this vitally-needed exurban-D.C.
Seat 52-48.
--- GA-12 (Augusta and a stretch of S.E. Georgia) -- GOP Challenger
Rick Allen is fighting tooth-and-hammer, fang-and-sickle against
Inc. Demo John Barrow in a District the GOP dearly, desperately
wants to take! Given the nature/trend of this Cycle, it's starting
to look better for Challenger Allen.
Nabbbss says: Allen, the Republican Challenger, Wins this District 51-49.
-- NH-1 (Much of Eastern and Southern New Hampshire -- the more
highly Urbanized of NH's two Districts) -- GOP Challenger Frank Guinta
has been up/down and back-and-forth in the Polls against Inc. Demo
Carol Shea-Porter. Although the fight has been fierce and New
Hampshire-ites staunchly and stolidly make-up their minds long
before an Election, the GOP stands a better than 50-50 chance here.
Nabbbss says: Frank Guinta Wins this Herculean struggle 50.8 to 49.2.
(Watch for a possibly HUGE NH Upset if effervescent and energizing
GOP Challenger Marilinda Garcia Wins in NH-2!)
-- UT-4 (Northern SLC 'burbs and towns) -- Open Seat. With the
Retirement of Inc. Demo Matheson (the only Demo in all of Utah),
Conservative Republican and Mormon (and yes, African-American) Mia Love
looks to seize the reins for what will likely be a lengthy reign (!) to become
the 1st Black GOP Female Conservative in the House. (She Lost to Matheson
by a mere several-hundred Votes last time in 2012.)
It'll drive 'em CRAZY, Friends!
Nabbbss says: Ms. Love in a sweep, 55-45.
-- NC-7 (Wilmington and surrounding area North to Raleigh's Southern
'burbs) -- With the Retirement of Inc. Demo Mike McIntyre, this
innately-Conservative District (Romney carried it by 19%!) Open Seat
finally finds its home with GOP Candidate David Rouzer, who
Lost in 2012 by a microscopic 0.2%.
Nabbbss says: Rouzer crushes sacrificial-lamb Demo Jonathan
Barfield 58-42 for a truly, ahem, Rouzing Win!
-- NC-2 (A chunk of Central North Carolina's Piedmont Region) --
This will be a HOLD by GOP Incumbent and Registered Nurse (yes, we
really, really NEED her expertise in the House nowadays!) Renee Ellmers,
over highly-recognizable and talented Clay Aiken. Yes, THAT Clay Aiken,
Winner of American IDOL and successful Singer-Actor-Song Stylist.
Nabbbss says: Despite Aiken’s high-visibility and his (otherwise)
high-likability, Ms. Ellmers HOLDS this 2nd District 53-47.
SUMMARY and OVERVIEW of 2014 HOUSE ELECTION:
I foresee a Net-Gain of 8-15 Seats for the Republicans, raising their
Majority from the current 235 to 243-250.
This despite, given the sheer numbers (435 Seats up for re-Election),
the Republicans' Losing 3-5 scattered Seats.
NOTE: This Estimate and Prediction has factored-in "Murphy's Law"
and all other human/political psycho-electoral-dynamics that can
result in unforeseen Upsets.
That is, several Seats will likely change-hands to/from both Parties
in Upsets that will-have-been completely unforeseen. This has always
been the case.
That is all.
Going into Nov. 4, Republicans currently Hold 235 Seats -- a
17-Seat Majority, to 200 Demo Seats. (There are several Vacancies
by Retirement, Resignation, or Death [both Parties]. I am merely
rounding-off the "numbers.")
GOP Historical Synopsis: In the Great Wave of 2010, the GOP Net-Gained
63 Seats -- a Modern-Day record -- to give them a 242-Seat Majority.
This was the largest GOP Majority since the 1947-1949 Majority of 246 Seats.
In 2012, the GOP Net-Lost seven Seats, resulting in their current
235-200 Seat Majority. Therefore, the GOP/Conservatives need ONLY
to Net-Gain eight Seats to surpass their substantial 2010 242-Seat
Majority. A Net-Gain of eight Seats will produce a 243-Seat Majority.
The sheer quantity of ALL 435 House Seats being up for re-Election
necessitates that mainly Demo Seats that are Vulnerable to GOP/Conservative
pick-up for 2014 will be selectively and specifically mentioned here
(along with several notable Holds).
NOTE: For any given Race, you may Google or Wiki to learn more!
On November 4, 2014, the KEY (and Bellwether) HOUSE RACES, and LIKELY
or POSSIBLE GOP PICK-UPS TO WATCH are:
--- WV-3 (West Virginia House District 3)-- Demo Incumbent Nick Rahall,
aka Nick-Joe Rahall -- the youngest-Elected (1976, 18-Terms for
38 years as-of Nov.2014) and longest-serving Democrat -- will at long last
come crashing down with a thud. It's truly and literally been a
multi-generational reign for Rahall over the long-suffering and besieged
populace in this coal-and-railroad-based District. Over the decades,
Rahall has done so many personal/political favors for SO MANY Voters
that his downfall has been delayed by at least a decade, but THIS TIME
he will fall...to Republican Evan Jenkins.
Nabbbss says: Jenkins Wins it 52-48, as beleaguered Voters finally
cast-off Rahall's multi-tentacled, seemingly never-ending grasp.
--- AZ-2 -- Demo Incumbent Ron Barber, after one Term, Loses to
Martha McSally. This is her 2nd attempt and IMO, it's 95%+ likely
to be successful, as she Lost in 2012 by appx. a thousand Votes.
Barber is/was Gabby Giffords' Field Director until she was tragically
shot and brain-damaged at an open-air appearance in her Eastern
Tucson District. McSally is the first female American Fighter Pilot to
enter enemy territory, among many Honors and Achievements. Given
the likely drop-off in Democratic participation, this race now belongs
to McSally. She will launch a lengthy Congressional Career and will
receive a plumb assignment to a Seat on the Armed Services Cmte.
Nabbbss says: McSally Wins! She is a genuinely needed and welcome
addition to the House. She Wins 53-47.
--- WV-2 -- Alex Mooney (R) is neck-and-neck with Nick Casey for
this Open Seat formerly held by newly-Elected WV GOP Senator Shelley
Moore Capito. (YAY!)
Nabbbss says: Given the prevailing near-Wave GOP trend this year
AND the habit of WV's 2nd District Voters of Voting for a Republican
Congressperson, Mooney Wins this Race 54-46. (Note that this Race
represents a HOLD, not a Net pick-up for the GOP.)
--- NY-21 (Upstate NY) -- Plucky, personable, persistent Elise Stefanik (R)
takes this Open District from Demo clutches. It's a nice, welcome turnover
in a NY District that's as far-removed from Manhattan as can be imagined!
Nabbbss says: Ms. Stefanik picks-it-up and Wins by 52-48.
--- IL-12 (far-Downstate IL) -- GOP'er Mike Bost will handily grab
this Seat from Demo Incumbent William Enyart.
Nabbbss says: Bost takes it 53-47.
--- IL-10 (far-Northern Chicagoland up to WI Border) -- Robert Dold (R)
is engrossed in a very hard-fought struggle with Inc. Demo Brad Schneider.
Things have lately been looking UP for Challenger Dold.
Nabbbss says: Republican Challenger Dold ekes it out 50.8 to 49.2.
--- AZ-1 (Northern AZ and far-Southeastern Phoenix 'burbs) -- Demo
Inc. Ann Kirkpatrick is in the real (Political) "OK Corral" of her career
here, against Republican Challenger Andy Tobin, and in THIS year,
the edge goes to Tobin in this otherwise nearly-balanced AZ District.
Nabbbss says: Tobin claws his way to Victory 51-49, making-for
a TWO-SEAT turnover (with AZ-2) in this essentially Conservative State.
--- HI-1 (yes, Hawaii 1st District!) -- Charles Djou (R) is waging
an unprecedented and seldom-seen (in this Demo-dominated State)
close Contest against Demo Mark Takai, for this Open Seat. This
District is composed mainly of the Honolulu Urban Metro area.
(Hawaii's 2nd District is a small portion of Oahu and all the
Outer Islands.) Against all odds, well, we can always HOPE (this year)!
Nabbbss says: In a shocker to both Islanders and Mainlanders, the
Republican Djou Wins it 50.6 to 49.4!
--- MN-8 (Northern Minnesota's arrowhead region) -- Challenger
Stewart Mills is taking-on and -- if polls can be believed -- beating
Inc. Demo Rick Nolan.
Nabbbss says: Republican Mills clobbers the hapless Nolan 53-47.
--- AR-2 (Little Rock and some surrounding Counties) -- In this Open
District, GOP'er French Hill and Demo Patrick Henry (!) Hays have been
ferociously scratching-and-clawing each other. As is often said, "The
trend is your Friend," and that holds here as well, YAY!
Nabbbss says: French Hill beats Demo Hays 51-49.
--- VA-10 (Far-Western D.C. Virginia-based 'burns incl. Loudin County) –
In a GOP HOLD (from Retiring Republican Frank Wolf), Barbara Comstock (R)
(you'll recognize her if you're a long-time Fox News viewer) looks to edge-out
DEMO John Foust.
Nabbbss says: Ms. Comstock HOLDS this vitally-needed exurban-D.C.
Seat 52-48.
--- GA-12 (Augusta and a stretch of S.E. Georgia) -- GOP Challenger
Rick Allen is fighting tooth-and-hammer, fang-and-sickle against
Inc. Demo John Barrow in a District the GOP dearly, desperately
wants to take! Given the nature/trend of this Cycle, it's starting
to look better for Challenger Allen.
Nabbbss says: Allen, the Republican Challenger, Wins this District 51-49.
-- NH-1 (Much of Eastern and Southern New Hampshire -- the more
highly Urbanized of NH's two Districts) -- GOP Challenger Frank Guinta
has been up/down and back-and-forth in the Polls against Inc. Demo
Carol Shea-Porter. Although the fight has been fierce and New
Hampshire-ites staunchly and stolidly make-up their minds long
before an Election, the GOP stands a better than 50-50 chance here.
Nabbbss says: Frank Guinta Wins this Herculean struggle 50.8 to 49.2.
(Watch for a possibly HUGE NH Upset if effervescent and energizing
GOP Challenger Marilinda Garcia Wins in NH-2!)
-- UT-4 (Northern SLC 'burbs and towns) -- Open Seat. With the
Retirement of Inc. Demo Matheson (the only Demo in all of Utah),
Conservative Republican and Mormon (and yes, African-American) Mia Love
looks to seize the reins for what will likely be a lengthy reign (!) to become
the 1st Black GOP Female Conservative in the House. (She Lost to Matheson
by a mere several-hundred Votes last time in 2012.)
It'll drive 'em CRAZY, Friends!
Nabbbss says: Ms. Love in a sweep, 55-45.
-- NC-7 (Wilmington and surrounding area North to Raleigh's Southern
'burbs) -- With the Retirement of Inc. Demo Mike McIntyre, this
innately-Conservative District (Romney carried it by 19%!) Open Seat
finally finds its home with GOP Candidate David Rouzer, who
Lost in 2012 by a microscopic 0.2%.
Nabbbss says: Rouzer crushes sacrificial-lamb Demo Jonathan
Barfield 58-42 for a truly, ahem, Rouzing Win!
-- NC-2 (A chunk of Central North Carolina's Piedmont Region) --
This will be a HOLD by GOP Incumbent and Registered Nurse (yes, we
really, really NEED her expertise in the House nowadays!) Renee Ellmers,
over highly-recognizable and talented Clay Aiken. Yes, THAT Clay Aiken,
Winner of American IDOL and successful Singer-Actor-Song Stylist.
Nabbbss says: Despite Aiken’s high-visibility and his (otherwise)
high-likability, Ms. Ellmers HOLDS this 2nd District 53-47.
SUMMARY and OVERVIEW of 2014 HOUSE ELECTION:
I foresee a Net-Gain of 8-15 Seats for the Republicans, raising their
Majority from the current 235 to 243-250.
This despite, given the sheer numbers (435 Seats up for re-Election),
the Republicans' Losing 3-5 scattered Seats.
NOTE: This Estimate and Prediction has factored-in "Murphy's Law"
and all other human/political psycho-electoral-dynamics that can
result in unforeseen Upsets.
That is, several Seats will likely change-hands to/from both Parties
in Upsets that will-have-been completely unforeseen. This has always
been the case.
That is all.
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