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Re: JohnCM post# 1363

Tuesday, 10/28/2014 9:58:59 PM

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 9:58:59 PM

Post# of 20558
Capitulation signs have appeared in the past and failed on gold & miners, so again I remind you it is more than just technicals that need to be considered such as other fundamental dynamics for a 'bottom' to actually occur. Fundamentals create technicals (and technicals do not create fundamentals), and if you are attempting to seek an an anticipated 'bottom', you need to look beyond technicals and understand the forces in the market that are fighting gold right now.
Technical capitulations can occur, but in order for a long term bottom to form, you need fundamentals to back that up.

That said, there has not yet been an established proved bottom no matter how you attempt to portray it in either a technical perspective or fundamental perspective.

Best strategy I've been doing the last couple years 'if' I trade anything related to silver/gold, is I use the capitulation metrics on short term basis (along with following other indicators that fundamentally affect gold) for short term trading these miners only (& has proved best so far). Miners do have their periods where they 'capitulate' but it has always proved to be a short term trade. As of today, that is still the pattern for miners and that is the way it will continue until the market fundamentals change for gold. Eventually it will happen, but as of today there is no proved established bottom yet.

I wish you well with your long term plan on miners, but I just do not agree that we are at 'bottom' yet.
I will continue to treat miners & gold as short term trading tools only, which has served me well. I've watched countless people get burned the last couple years using a long term stock miner holding and accumulation strategy.
A person just can't fall in love with these things, it is too dangerous