Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

If your estimate is correct then PPHM will never enrol the 582 patients for DEC 2015.

My estimate is 1.5-2 patients for every 10 sites.

And you wrote that yesterday so I connect that date to it for the calculations because the maths are simple. 14.6 x 2 = 30 patients (rounded) yesterday.

We currently have 19698 centre days shared by those 146 centres that are currently open. That is because the first centre is open 302 days, a centre that opened on May 3rd 178 days, etc (you just sum them up).

So 30 patients equal 19700 (both rounded) centres days.
So 19700/30=657 centres days PER 1 patient to enrol.

So 582-30=552 patients to still enrol at 657 centre days per patient is 552x657=362664 centre days needed.

We produce 146 centre days per day so 362664/146=2484 calender days needed (provided we stay at 146 centres). But even assuming PPHM has 175 centres open tomorrow, then we would still need 2072 calendar days. I'll be mild and take those 2072 to continue with and not the even worse 2484.

We are OCT 28th 2014 and end of enrolment of the 582 is DEC 2015 according PPHM. So that leaves about 426 calendar days if we stay on track.

With your estimation PPHM would finish 2072-426=1646 calendar days later. That would bring us to JUN 2019 for end of enrolment.

Now DD, you know I am an absolute PPHM fan, but I agree they are not flawless and can make mistakes, certainly in things were you need to estimate based on lots of unknown factors. BUT missing their end target by 4.5 years? No, that is just to much.