The Rx numbers can be a bit unsettling. Pre-crash, the current Rx numbers put us at about Apr/May 2013 levels, but here we are nearly a year and a half later at the same numbers, U.S. We have to add Europe to the numbers, so that helps some. Again, until Q4/2014, or Q1 2015 numbers roll in will we know real revenue trajectory, as the 15Mg effect will be resolved by then (U.S. only). Still, more robust weekly numbers would offer more confidence in what is happening with doctor trust in the drug.
Regardless, this quarters numbers will still be heavily scrutinized for pod. In the past few Q calls, MD has given restricted data on the pod numbers, speaking to only to "patients that have received drug". This obscures the drop rate which had zoomed to 25% and heading up. With AE management this number should settle down, but the pre-screening may also slow NRx growth. The new label (which is essentially identical in the US and Eu), will continue to throttle down expectations from the lofty heights that once were.
The net of all that is that the market, and old timers here way over-estimated revenue growth for Iclusig, pre-crash. Ariad was starting to get valued more on a fundamental basis and less on potential. And as revenue/TRx/NRx did not seem to grow then as quickly as it should have, these data points were moreorless rationalized away by investors here, even as the pps started to flag into the teens. The sizzle around triple threat '113 slowed the decline, but eventually, '113 stopped sizzling and shortly thereafter, Pona just stopped period.
The market turned on Ariad as a result. Sizzle could not be monetized or it just lost its sizzle. The result is what we see with '113 getting zero luv from the analysts, even though it very well should. The same goes for all those Pona IST INDs out there. (And with Pona, no drug ever overcomes all it AE issues, and Pona will never recover it former shine in CML, no matter what AE management is taken. Forget broad 1st line folks, think part of 2nd line at best. For second line, we are 2 trials/3-5 years away from a dosing strategy that somehow permits Pona to hammer CML, then adjust - e.g. maybe come off the drug temporarily to permit vascular recovery, then back on drug.)
The realization that the promise of the drugs, and the actual fulfillment of the promise, are gulfs apart in Ariad. All the 'if this IND hits' or the 'mN could address a 20mm pop' are total speculation. IST's do little to sway the FDA. At the moment, no entity, not Ariad, no partner, is investing a dime in a registration trial for Pona. Not even GIST.
Given Ariad's history, an organic payoff, if ever, is years away. To continue to ignore or to choose to be ignorant about history around Ariad is a faulty foundation for dreams of a $100- $300 pps. We are a $6 stock, potential and all. Still, there is hope that mN brings some sizzle.
So while we wait for sizzle (which may never come), cash is running short. There is no 'free money' (as one poster wrote) that can help Ariad out. People stopped pulling up the wheelbarrows of money at $19.50; at $7, they shorted into insurance.
IMO, one of two things is likely going to happen. Either the pps recovers to the $7-$10 range (on '113 promise, mN sizzle and some Pona recovery) and HB dilutes us again, or we get sold for $12-$20. Either way, it's going to be high risk/high reward scenario well beyond where we were just a year ago. The forecast is either the sky is falling or it's Pollyanna blue sky. Most likely, it's some where under the bell.
