I had a discussion with an investor/mentor/friend I hold in high regard due to his enormous success over the past two and a half decades and his decency. His arguments for getting out of BCLI were convincing -- I sold out. I offer a series of quotes below.
Kind regards,
Minding
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"BCLI is also taking some heat today in response to positive developments by other companies doing research on ALS. BCLI is only actively doing research on ALS although its technology may have other applications. (And there are a number of companies that are using stem cell tech to treat both Parkinson's and MS.) Anyone who is perceived to be ahead in the game will reduce speculation about BCLI being successful."
"I do not expect any catalysts to emerge for BCLI until next year when test results will be known."
"In medical tech its always about who gets to the goal line the quickest. If someone has a better mouse trap than the competition and it has to do with health care, people flock to the better trap until something better comes along. From an investing standpoint, the money will flow into the leaders in medical tech not the followers."
"What does happen however is that positive news creates speculation around other companies working on other illnesses that are showing signs of success. For example if stem cell research works for one or more illness, speculation will grow that stem cell treatments will work on other illnesses. However when one gets to the goal line, those in the race have a much more difficult time."
"With BCLI, they have not given any indication that their results are anywhere close to those reported today by a non-public company. The same can be said for CUR."
"[Genervon's] approach appears to be gene therapy, not stem cells. They have been around since at least the 90's and remain private, which is a huge accomplishment. In my eyes the impact to the markets in knowing that someone is working on a better approach will take the speculative zing out of the competition for public companies. I will no longer touch CUR or BCLI, simply because neither have funding sources if something goes wrong."
"One tailed or two, the numbers are really good, possibly the best ever seen in an ALS study. That is where the money will go. If it were public my guess is the stock would have doubled at least on the news. Not only that it apparently has potential impact on Parkinson's. BCLI may not have enough money to finish their current round to testing. If they do not get numbers equal to Gene's I doubt if anyone will want to fund future research. There are better bets in the biotech sphere. I hope BCLI succeeds. I hope they all succeed. There are many terrible diseases that stem and gene research may alleviate great suffering in. But I know from experience that BCLI and CUR now have new competition that knowledgeable investors will factor into the mix. CUR lost almost 20% of its value because of this announcement.
"Genervon has a big advantage. If they need to raise more money, they don't have to impress a public. They just have to impress a few very big hitters. And they do not have disclose their research to the public. They may choose to keep quiet and than suddenly say---"we win", we have a successful treatment for ALS. The race is over."
