Sunday, October 19, 2014 9:15:49 PM
Say 20% : Merger happens with 30k% gains : 0.03
Say 80% : Nothing happens with total loss : zero, nada
The Expected Value = (% x PPS) + (% x PPS) : 0.0060
The Edge = EV - current : 0.0059
Odds = price gained if merger happens : 0.0299
Kelly Edge/Odds = 19.7%
The 1/2 Kelly = 9.9%
Anywhere from 10% to 20% of bankroll should be used now.
$RMTD
- mark this post, I'm willing to say this is the most important post today than ever [I was being highly conservative also with 80%]
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