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Re: DewDiligence post# 182915

Friday, 10/17/2014 11:04:37 PM

Friday, October 17, 2014 11:04:37 PM

Post# of 251706
The slowdown in Chinese growth has been predicted many times. This time it may be happening, but case not yet proven.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/16/news/economy/china-gdp/

The key is wrapped up in the following.

In China, now indulging in the worst credit binge ever, a slowdown by more than half could drop the country’s GDP growth to 5% or less in the coming years—another two percentage points off the already slow pace. It is ironic that while some criticize Europe for not spending enough, China is now paying the price for having stimulated too much since 2008.

What would a two-point slowdown in China mean for the world? Every one-point slowdown in China’s growth now takes about half a point off global growth, according to a recent J.P. Morgan analysis. So a two-point China slowdown could bring down global growth by nearly a point. With the world economy currently expanding at about 2.5%, a one-point drop would bring growth close to 1.5%. Any growth rate below 2% starts to feel like a recession.

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