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Comment: Intel faces an Epic struggle
Roger Howorth, IT Week [02-06-2003]

Problems with Intel's Itanium came to the fore recently, when HP released version 2 of its HP-UX operating system for the chip. Given that the new software is optimised for the current Itanium architecture, HP deserves a pat on the back. But as Itanium 2 was launched almost a year ago, HP is lucky this architecture is still the current one.

Intel will launch new versions of the chip, and the king of processors says its plan for more Itaniums is unstoppable. If this is true, Intel will soon launch Itaniums that use an improved architecture.

Intel makes much of the fact that Itanium's Epic architecture enables the chip to efficiently run suitably optimised software. This is because the Epic design does not use hardware on the chip to optimise software as it is running. Instead, Itanium assumes the software was optimised when it was made. This is different from other chips, which use hardware to dynamically optimise software while it is being executed.

But the problem with compiler-based optimisation is that software runs best when it is optimised differently for each version of the chip's architecture. There have been two versions of Itanium architecture since its launch; no doubt more are planned. Intel argues that upgrading to a new version of the architecture does not mean users will have to update the software because a new chip will run at a faster clock speed.

Well, this sounds like a case of having the cake and eating it. After all, either Epic is worth having, or it's not. If it is, software must be optimised for each architecture. If not, then Epic is a waste of money.

Either way, Itanium strengthens the link between commercial software vendors and Intel. It is like Wintel version 2 - an IT treadmill with Microsoft and Intel at the controls. Fancy a ride? While you ponder, consider this. The Epic approach seems to signal server software upgrades every year or two.

Last month marked the first time there was a version of HP-UX optimised for Itanium 2, yet it could soon be outdated. Perhaps such complications explain the low sales of Itanium 2 systems. After a disappointing start, Dell stopped selling them. HP, which co-developed Itanium with Intel, currently sells four Itanium systems. IBM recently halted Itanium deliveries until a hardware bug is addressed. After some 10 years of development, Intel and HP have made a costly chip that seems suited to a few niches.

It's hard to say whether HP is disappointed by Itanium sales, but it seems odd that last year's release of HP-UX supported only Itanium chips, while this year's version supports both the Itanium and its predecessor - HP's PA-Risc chip. The tide could be turning for those on board the good ship Itanium.

http://www.networknews.co.uk/Analysis/1141320