The bottom line anyway you slice it or dice it is clear...
...they are going to drill...even if they do 3D first...that is what "encouraging" means. As such, if they also provide some resource estimates from their seismic studies, then everyone will be clamoring for shares of something that has a good chance to meet those estimates. Why? Because this isn't deepwater...and others like Tullow have 80+% success rates. Why shouldn't ERHC.
I don't think there's much room for debating the above.
If it happens that we don't get resource estimates, even a go forward on drilling will indicate that the "experts" who studied the seismic think that drilling is worthwhile and commercial deposits exists.
*ANY* indication that ERHC may soon garner oil revenue values this stock higher than where it is at...ANY commercial well will do. And if drilling means that some smart oil people think there's commercial (or else they wouldn't drill), then we will go higher.
It's that simple.
Now where you may debate is on things like did CEPSA leave Swala's block because what we have in our block is so much more worthwhile to expend CEPSA's Kenyan resources on?
Or maybe you might speculate as to whether the Kenyan approval process takes time because they want to drill 2 wells and not just one.
Or maybe you might want to speculate on when 100,000 shares or so now and then get sold by those who convert their convertible bonds...
...but at the end of the day, so long as they are drilling, as it seems they are...
...we will go north. What's the magnitude of how north we go? Well, that's fine to speculate on too....
But north is all I need...
...because for most long timers, all it takes is a half dozen pennies or so to break even on this investment...if they've been averaging down, that is.
Krombacher
