GV- Looks to me like an excellent quarter is coming. I was looking at the numbers of this psl2 fav over the last few quarters:
GV has 2 components, electrical service lines which has run at about 2/3rd of revs and condominium construction and sales. Lets look at the numbers:
Electrical: Revs over the last 3 quarters have been
Q4 8.6Mil
Q3 7.8Mil
Q2 5.3Mil
Definitely showing a nice rate of growth. Backlog #s are even more impressive:
Q4 24.0 Mil
Q3 13.8 Mil
Q2 11.6 Mil
I think it is probably safe to say that Q1 2006 should show another very nice increase in revs and (hopefully) profits as well.
Now look at real estate (condo) revs. They tend to spike up and down for various reasons. Here are the last 4 quarters of revs from that division:
Q4 1.7 Mil
Q3 3.5 Mil
Q2 4.2 Mil
Q1 1.1 Mil
Again, lets look at backlog #s:
Q4: 16.9 Mil
Q3 3.2 Mil
Q2 6.3 Mil
Q1 10.5 Mil
Real estate revs in 2005 came mainly from “Oak Park”, a condo project that was started in Feb 05. In Q1, they had many orders based on the backlog reported there but they do not report those as sales until they get beyond the dirt moving and foundation stages and into framing. Notice the nice bulge in sales in Q2 which reflected the progress not only in Q2 but their start up in Q1 as the backlog was converted to sales based on % completion method. Q2 earnings were however held down by lower revs from the electrical division.
And here are EPS #s for 2005:
Q4 3c
Q3 3c
Q2 2c
Q1 1c
Now lets look ahead to activity for Q1 06 that GV will be reporting less than one month from now:
Electrical backlog going into the quarter is at 24 Mil vs. 5.8 mil a year ago. Business is booming there so revs should be outstanding and profits should make for a very nice picture as well.
The company has already announced that they will be reporting revs from their new project “Pineapple House” in the quarter. That project is bigger than last years “Oak Park” project so that alone should bring healthy revs and profits there. Plus Oak Park still has some revs that the company has indicated will be reported in Q1. That should also add another $1.5 mil to real estate sales.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong but the way I see it is that GV will likely report an excellent quarter for Q1 06. I see 5c minimum and it could well be higher than that. At 5c, that is an annualized PE of 6 with strong growth. The only negative that I see is the slowdown in the FL RE market. But GV requires a 10% down payment on presales so buyers are not going to just walk away either. Some areas of FL are hurting but from what I have seen, the area that GV is operating in (Melbourne) has simply slowed down to a sustainable rate.
Bottom line: Despite its recent run-up the stock remains very cheap, IMO. Do your own DD as well and good luck to all of us GV stockholders!
