Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[sulaco]

Chasing green shoots...and failing badly

N.B. I sincerely hope this post doesn't violate the TOC. I mean no offense to no one. Just pointing out the dominant psychology here. An "instant-gratification-takes-too-long" mindset in a financial backdrop that punishes that view severely.

Ah, so much angst on the board. So much short-term maneuvering and hand-wringing that's perfectly in sync with the zeitgeist.

It's funny how the board seems filled with 14-year Techniclone-PPHM battle-hardened veterans, yet so many have been here on the Board for only a few years...or months. I guess everyone wants to be a battle-scarred veteran...even if they are not.

So what happens when you follow a long-term strategy in a short-term world? Answer: you don't post on this Board much. Too many green-shooters looking for the quick kill, advising you to do the same, and scolding you if you don't.

It's in the American psyche. "Get-rich-quick." Swagger with the boys, beer in hand, in the backyard barbeque and talk about how you nailed this x-bagger and that x-bagger.

Except it's all a dream. Most of us are in the red. Really in the red. And we want that bailout for our emotional investing decisions made previously (and badly.)

The temptation to sell at $5 will be huge. The pressure has been building since September, 2012. So many pressure cookers around here ready to blow. I think it will be a serious mistake to sell at $5, just as it will be a mistake to sell at $25. But how many will still be around to have that nice, difficult decision to make - that's the question.


Best always,

Joe