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Thursday, October 02, 2014 12:49:00 AM
One, that TA will lead to lots of trading. Not true for me. Last month for instance, my trade account was up about 30%, yet I only executed 4 trades. And, the trades executed were for a minor percentage of my holdings. Good trade opportunities don't come about every day (for me).
Two, TA is an even handed prediction tool. Not every stock on every day gives the same TA confidence level. TA tends to be a poor predictor for many, if not most, stocks on any given day. Often, it's waiting for the right elements to fall in place. I try to anticipate events days in advance. Sometimes the elements align, sometimes not.
Three, TA is about certainties; no rather probabilities. One reason to have a strategy for dealing with events that do not go as planned. One part of a sound strategy is diversification, to include a cash position. Another part is establishing sound sell strategies (stop limits). Another should be finding winning patterns that have a high probability of success. Each individual investor will be unique.
Four, TA is best used without fundamental analysis. Although, TA of FA can be successful on their own; for me, they are more powerful when used in combination.
Five, TA will lead to specific and universal interpretations. I have often pointed out that cyclical indicators (patterns/overbought/oversold) often conflict with trend indicators (momentum). Yet, in context TA can usually ferret out which indicators are prevailing. But, on most days, TA can be used to support quite opposite opinions. I overcome much of the noise by taking a broad view. It helps me to be inquisitive (always looking to learn), never satisfied with results (always looking to improve), and open minded (always interested in examining different views).
There are many more misconceptions. Probably as many as there are individuals with closed minded dispositions.
Have a positive attitude (a good rule for success):
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