American Airlines Group Inc (AAL)

[j4turbo]

They used $3 bil worth of jet fuel combined last year Q3. As of 6/30/14 they had about $1 bil in jet fuel inventory. That means that $2 bil will be discounted 5%-20% compared to last year crude prices (assuming they use FIFO inventory, more if LIFO).

Couple that with a 2.5%-5% increase in revenues from prior year and my EPS target for Q3 is $1.87 excluding share buyback. Depending on share buyback could be more. Current analyst estimates are $1.76.