Apple Inc (AAPL)

[langostino]

drip, drip, drip

one after the other they lower estimates, then lower them again. I'd be surprised if Neff doesn't sneak in a downward revision too before earnings. I think he's the only one left north of 10mm.

BTW, following up on that previous exchange regarding the inflection point for decline in iPod growth rates, below is a chart showing it in black and white. As I said before (and twice you saw fit to dispute and claim as speculation what is objectively verifiable fact, despite obviously not bothering to review the data), the inflection point has come and gone. We are in the deceleration phase and have been. Which is fine, so long as the RATE of deceleration doesn't exceed expectations and doesn't stabilize in a range below the blended organic growth rate.

Having tossed some assumptions into my earnings model, I regret to say this will be the first quarter in nearly 2 years that my Rev and eps projections will be BELOW Street consensus. People can make of that what they wish, but I've been consistently closer to the reported numbers than any of the analysts on the Street and obviously a ton closer to tracking than the consensus. Admittedly I've not invested as much time in milking contacts in the channel this quarter, so perhaps I'm way off, and that accounts for it. OTOH, my CPU and iPod unit assumptions are higher than a number of analysts on the Street, including even the ultra-bullish Shaw Wu. FWIW, at 600k desktop CPUs, 425 laptop CPUs, notably higher blended AUP for laptops (mix shift in favor of new MacBooks vs. stagnating iBooks), and 9.2mm iPods at an AUP actually higher (again mix shift reflecting stagnant Shuffle), I still only arrive at $4.33B and $0.39.

For those looking to accumulate at lower prices, that would be "good." For those in trades looking for upward thrust, it would be bad.