Chuck's latest newsletter to those signed up:
In anticipation of our F1 filing being effective and Natcore being a fully reporting company on the OTCQB, I have been making presentations to U.S. brokerage firms and institutions. Our U.S. listing will make it easier for them to purchase Natcore shares than it has been in the past. The presentation I give discusses pro forma income indications for both black silicon and the back-side laser applications. I thought I would share these pro forma numbers with you so you would understand the scope and size and benefits of these applications to Natcore.
The black silicon application is currently being optimized both in China and Germany with a manufacturing company and independent lab respectively. We have already received good results and expect more shortly.
The laser application is now being developed at our Rochester facility and we feel we are very close to demonstrating an actual device.
Our logic in developing the black silicon pro forma starts with the 2013 worldwide solar production of 34.56 GW according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association report. We believe that Black silicon will reduce the cost to manufacture a solar cell by 20%. The cost of a cell is currently approximately $1.50. I assume a 20% market share. If this market share seems aggressive, remember a 20% market share might only be one or two Chinese clients. I assume a profit margin of 20%. Solar cells are amortized over a 20 year period. I am taking a cost reduction for one of those years as a profit margin. That represents $0.30 cents per cell gross profit, $768 M.
cid:image008.png@01CFD8DB.9AD1C570
The laser pro forma starts with the same worldwide solar production of 34.56 GW per year. We feel that the laser application will both increase power output and reduce cost. It eliminates the second vacuum furnace which will create a total low-temperature manufacturing process. Additionally it increases the area on the cell that can absorb light across all bandwidth. The increased surface area means more power and the elimination of the furnace means lower cost, similar to the black silicon cost reduction. Once again, I assume a 20% market share, 20% profit margin which we feel is the sum of the power output and cost reduction. We take that margin for one of the twenty amortized years for a profit per cell of $0.315 cents and a gross profit per year of $806M.
cid:image009.png@01CFD8DB.9AD1C570
Please note that these are pro forma (estimated) profit analysis that may not be achieved by the Company for a number of reasons, but we nonetheless wanted you to get a feeling of the size and scope of these two applications; these two are the closest to commercialization and revenue.
I hope you find this information interesting and useful in how you view Natcore. Please let us know if you have any comments or questions since we want to make sure our shareholders are informed and up to date.
