This discussion on valuation has been helpful for me. As we have been stuck at 10 cents for a while, comments about manipulation, confusion, and dismay have been abundant. My interest about valuation is to try to determine whether the general board sentiment is legitimate or whether it is misplaced wishful thinking.
AG offers a sobering perspective about FMV. If he's right, a lot of us might be commiserating here for a long time.
On the other hand I really appreciate what AP1 writes. He has always been closest to the DLA potential and I give greater weight to his guesses. If he is right about the recent DLA contract prospects, we will be on a faster revenue tract than Zeng predicted. Therefore, if Zeng appraised APDN as a 25 cent stock one year from now, he will have to upgrade his forecast if revenues closer to AP1's guesses actually materialize.
JLH2's opinion is closest to mine. His belief is that government credentialing is important but commercial income, particularly from PHARMA, will be a more substantial revenue producer for the company's future. I agree. Cotton, polymers, tuna and antitheft strategies already augment income from government. However, from my perspective PHARMA is a huge target for ADNAS and I believe that the recent hire of Dr. Hogan shows that the company is on board with this sentiment.
In the past two weeks I have increased my holdings in APDN by about 10%. Obviously, I have felt that the stock has been in a good price range. Unless I missed it, nobody else has been an admitted buyer recently. However, make no mistake, I am not recommending others to buy now. The uncertainties that exist are many. This is particularly true about how we will do business with the DLA after Dec. 15. Until there is more clarity on this, I believe government sources of revenues are uncertain at best.
In the past I assumed that the company would announce its RS and climb to a major board ASAP. However, I sense that management might be on another path. It just seems that there was no need to have an infusion of $1.8M in capital unless there was something cooking to either buy time or open an opportunity or both. If I am right about this, the company might be positioning itself in some manner to either make the RS more palatable or its ascendance to the NYSE more favorable. Whatever it is, I think something is up that we shall see sometime over the next few months.
GLTA longs.
