Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Ebola - when evaluating the single arm (in many cases single patient) results of ebola treatments it will be important to keep in mind that the fatality rate varies *wildly*. E.g. Sierra Leone has had a 30 percent mortality rate in confirmed cases in this latest outbreak. Liberia has had 70 percent. Presumably a result of different standards of care since, until recently, Sierra Leone seemed to have a much better ability to get resources to their cases. And I'd presume that survival rates in the US would be substantially higher still.

Other notes:

1) it would be useful to know (e.g. when predicting resources, when predicting start of burnout, ...) what percent of close contacts (e.g. Family members) are infected but asymptomatic. And thus probably immune going forward. In locales where Ebola is endemic the percent of people with antibodies but who were never aware of the disease is surprisingly high.

2) note that much of the calculus about experimental vaccine use assumes there can be no harm if tested through ph 1. But it has happened in the past that a vaccine actually increases the rate of infection. E.g. The HIV vaccine that increased infection rate by 40 percent. Certainly not common. But something to be born in mind when combined with #1.