I was gone for a few days but have now caught up on the discussions.
Looking back at my "logic" post being replied to here, it looks like my points were more correct than less.
Dan's replies fall exactly in line with what I expected. ERHE is waiting for official approval before PR'ing anything as they have consistently done in the past.
Now let's adjust the logic accordingly. I will go ahead and consider all 4 options discussed last week even though filing for an extension I still don't see as being a possibility.
1) Go straight to Drilling. Obviously still on the table and due to "Encouraging" comment, fairly real possibility.
2) Go to 3D seismic study to further pinpoint where to drill. Not a bad option and could increase the likelihood of a strike on first drilling. Not desired by short-term minded investors as it postpones the price ramp up pre-drilling. Similar to above, still on the table and fairly real possibility.
3) CEPSA pull out. Always a possibility and can happen at any point in time. Logic dictates this to be less likely now due to "Encouraging" comment and the longer it takes for Kenya government to "approve" or "negotiate/change" the next phase, the more likelihood it would be option 1 or 2 above.
4) File for an extension. Never heard of this being brought up by CEPSA, Kenya, ERHE or any other driller in Kenya recently so I still feel this is a made up option by people on this board. The longer we hear nothing probably means this option is less and less likely. IMHO, CEPSA/ERHE would get this same desired result by simply proposing option 2. They would have years before they would be required to finish further seismics and they can propose a plan to go into drilling at any point in time in the future. The sooner, the better for ALL parties concerned if oil is there.
My revised estimate on likelihood of 4 above options:
1) 49.9999%
2) 49.9999%
3) 00.0001%
4) 00.0001%
Now that more time has passed, we are that much closer to the known decision.
GLTA
