"Intel osbourned all their existing products at IDF, so Q2 and even Q3 should be pretty grim for them. "
You forgot Q4. And Q107. And likely Q207.
Not only did they osbourne their existing product line, they did it at a time when their competition not only has what is regarded as a superior product, the competition is ramping additional production from two different directions. It isn't even clear that Intel can cut prices enough to make their P4s attractive to avoid having AMD selling everything they make through the end of the year.
Even assuming NGA lives up the the PR and beats K8, clock for clock on most benchmarks. Something I am dubious about, but for sake of argument take it as a given. According to Intel, they will have 20% of their production as NGA by the end of 2006. 60% by Q207. Being a ramp, Intel is probably going to have NGA account for around 15% of their production for Q406. Once Dell is accounted for, they being unlikely to use AMD outside of Alienware, that leaves maybe 75% of their production vulnerable to being displaced by AMD. And AMD is planning on having the capacity between the three fabs to displace more than half of that production. Yes, AMD will likely have to cut prices. But talk about making it up on volume...
Intel could be at 60% by the end of the year.
