Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I wouldn't declare that, but I would treat it to similarly last year in 2013 near this time. It rallied in August after hitting extreme oversold conditions, then fell again in Fall yet to new lows before rising in a 'steroidal' fashion into the Winter.
If you are accumulating for the Winter upside, I would not presume too much yet. UGAZ could still see 12, maybe 9, if we test 3.40-3.60 nat gas, and it is possible, so keep some ammo for that possibility. Hence the word 'possibility', and we do have 2.5 mos of approx injection season left over.
Despite that I'm very bullish going into Winter & I do not think the injections will be enough to catch up to 5 yr avg or last year's withdrawal, I still want to remind that it is possible for traders to take this down further yet toward Sept-Oct like in 2013 happened.
The patient & very calculated buyer during this season will reap the rewards in Winter, but it will take patience & discipline to wait for possible extreme lows that could develop yet (below 13) and add there. So what I'm saying is go in at 13-14 (like I've said since late July), but do not add above that much & "do not yet go all in". Wait for big dips between July-November to buy.
My scale-in continues to be 13(or 14) approx start, and wait to see if we get 11-12, then add second time, and a third time if possibly hits 9-10 before approx November 2014.
Upside mid-20's minimally over Winter with 30-40 very possible in my view.