paradigm shift! rofl.
The only way to explain the stock movement in connection with the news, which is the only apparent mover today (one might buy that technical considerations "made" the stock do something, but...), is to ask what the buyers saw in the news.
The answer seems to be that Apple is threatening to change the type of barrier faced by potential buyers. Previously, parting with several grand for Apple kit required the belief that Apple's OS and software written for it would solve all the buyer's computing needs (or else buying multiple machines). Lately, this has been a niche of a few percent.
Making it easier for folks to pick the OS they want to run, including Brand X, reduces Apple's barrier to sale to an all-time low: one can buy Apple's product without the risk of having to buy yet another machine if the OS migration doesn't pan out, or if a critical app doesn't materialize. Of course, this assumes the eventual permanence of at least the features offered in this "beta".
The question is, what do we get once the limited-time beta ends. The market response seems to have been "wow" but of course this can deflate pretty easily as people point out that Apple isn't a MSFT OEM partner, Apple won't be fishing in Dell's pond very directly, Apple isn't marketing to enterprise seriously yet, etc. Someone will ask "how big is this potential market" and the answer might be the Alienware-type gamer market (e.g., another niche market ... and this assumes Apple actually delivers a game platform, yet more speculation).
What will we get when the dust settles?
- Apple will get broad feedback on Brand X on its hardware, which will be useful as Apple decides whether to pitch Apple's hardware a platform for XP/Vista servers in a virtualized environment, or works on theories for migrating customers to its own platform, etc.
- Apple is already getting a lot of press out of this; try imagining how much it would cost to buy the airtime and column inches this generates.
- Customers may see Apple as offering a viable alternative platform for whatever OS they want to run
... what Apple ultimately does with virtual servers, multi-boot, etc. and support for these is wholly speculative, but this is a new offering for Apple. I expect to see a lot of free press out of this -- but this time, without the "but some people may need a machine capable of booting the omnipresent MS-Win" that comes in the usual boilerplate at the end of otherwise "go buy Mac"-sounding reviews.
I think I adequately agreed the public beta boot manager, in and of itself, does close to zero for sales.
To say this isn't a big change in Apple's positioning of its computer products is an error.
Take care,
--Tex.
AI
