Marani Brands Inc. (MRIB)

[Matthew Berg]

Agreed - most people are watching from the sideline.

Probably not a bad strategy at this point. Not much to gain but lots of risk and a lot to potentially lose. Here's how I see it. We have numbers coming September 30. Most if not everyone knows they're not going to be "pleasant" as Margrit has said just based on amount of product available for sale. Given the gross margin on that inventory of $145,000 and operating expenses of $150,000 a month minimum, Q2 is sure to be a $300,000 loss at bare minimum. Just nowhere else to pull any revenue from. Plus there was less than 1 month from the quarter to sell any of that inventory so 100% sell through is probably over optimistic but we'll go with it for shits and giggles.

So some other factors... Foreign contracts. Even if they develop or even come through at full amount of $100M it's still only $10 million over five years at margin or $.003 per share per year after eliminating debt. The gamble is if everything goes perfectly for Marani, I'm not sure the PPS will really be affected significantly and will wander around at $.01-.02 even in a perfect world. Now the other side of the equation...

Using Dan Senters' "bottle movement" data and assuming 500% increase in shipments, even if we call them sales, it totals only 130-150 cases or $15,000 roughly in sales to date of the last Money TV. Then we have the foreign contracts. If none of those materialize it's BIG trouble. Capital B there. Add to that any failure to have national advertising, and I'm talking the real stuff not another series of infomercials targeted at stock promotion, the confidence will really be lost.

Bottom line is it sure looks like they will need stellar news, EVERYTHING delivered as promised and lots of investor patience just to stay above a penny. But if it goes bad I can see not only a rapid move into the trips but a shutdown. So the smart money probably is on the sidelines waiting to see because there are just too many risk factors, a lot of ifs, ands and buts and some pretty hard to deny already established financials that are looking quite scary. Like I said, very little to gain not waiting to see but a lot to potentially lose.