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Re: Quindien post# 57642

Thursday, 08/14/2014 4:59:17 PM

Thursday, August 14, 2014 4:59:17 PM

Post# of 130743
Well, from a chart perspective, we know that it has retraced very little of the upmove and hung here for a spate.

I did do a Fib retrace using the hammer candle of 6/10, which really is a very pronounced signal day if you are prone to use candlesticks to time things. Problem is that using the low of the tail from that day, it doesn't even draw a 386 level of retrace.

For those unfamiliar with Fibs, what this means in practical terms is that, ordinarily, the minimum retrace level is .386 of the move. And as regards this stock, the retrace has not even been that. So, if thats all the retrace we are going to get before it re-ascends, then its stands to reason that this stock chart is very, very favorable. The move up is so strong that it hasn't even got the power to do the smallest of the typical retraces. Thats my point.

Anyway, the retrace was not even 386, using the tail of the hammer candle of 6/10. So I stepped over and drew the Fibs another way. This time I used the doji day of 6/19 and this resulted in something that is, from a Fib standpoint, more usable.

Using a Fib fan that has as its low end the tail of the doji day of 6/19, the 386 is almost attained. There are three long tailed days at the low point of the latest pullback (8/6, 8/7, & 8/8) and their tails come pretty close to being at a genuine 386 level.

Anyway... whether I use the 6/10 or 6/19 candle as the starting point of my Fib retrace, it remains a fact that there is real strength in this up move because there is almost no Fib signal given by the pull back. There is a pullback but it is so modest that it almost doesn't show even a 386 retrace line as having been attained. Thats my point.

Thats one solid reason to be accumulating EPGL. The chart, from a Fib point of view, is very, very muscular.

That said, it is still a fact that today it gave us a hanging man, and hanging men are negative. IMHO, however, the fact that today's volume was pathetic means that, even in a pullback that gives a hanging man, this stock is very, very muscular, IMHO.

It has hung just below the top of the high and we have till the 29th for it to behave or misbehave, as it were. Today, it did a hammer on really low volume compared to the average daily volume that has typified the chart during all of its rise, since mid june, that is.

A hammer on really low volume is not all that bad, IMHO. A hammer speaks of a pull back, but the low volume says that there is little real power in the negative aspect of the otherwise "bad" candle.

Basically, if there is bad news tomorrow, there will be force to the downside in the upocoming days and we'll see it in the chart. Bigtime down if the negative news is a sandbagging that no-one sees coming. But like everyone else, I seriously doubt that will be the outcome. More likely, its going to be a little down, a little up, a little down, a little up until there is some traction due to the approach of the expected day.

If there is no bad news tomorrow, its an opportunity to accumulate on any dips between now and the expected news. In such a case, I will use every negative day as an accumulation opportunity. Thats what it means to me, to be frank.

But I'm no more able to call the future than anyone else, so I'll just have to be a part of the chart's trading like everyone else is.

All my opinion, thanks.

Imperial Whazoo

"Just my opinions, folks. Do your own due diligence & make your own decisions. DO NOT... I repeat... DO NOT make any investment decisions on my comments. They are my opinions. That's all they are... OPINIONS."

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