Rambus (RMBS)

[Skeptic]

A poll from TMF, FWIW

What do you expect to be the final damages awarded to Rambus in the trial vs. Hynix?
8% (5 Votes)
Less than 100 million

20% (13 Votes)
100-200 million

28% (18 Votes)
200-300 million

34% (22 Votes)
300-500 million

9% (6 Votes)
more than 500 million



Cal - first a definition:

Win - Rambus is awarded some damages - odds 90%. Loss - no damages and the stock goes down 20 a share. However, there are degrees of losses and degrees of wins - having trouble doing the black and white thing. There are really two pieces - how many and which claims are infringed and what are the damages. I would argue that the latter is of utmost importance because it sets a precedent whether people like that or not. If a jury finds 8 claims are only worth 100 million for five years of infringement, Rambus has a big problem.

Let's say damages are less than 100 million - I say the stock goes down 10 - I give that a 20% chance.
Damages are between 100-200 - I give that a 50% chance and I say the stock rallies 5 bucks and then fizzles.
Damages are more than 200 million 30% chance and the stock rallies 10 bucks and may hold.

If I've done my math correctly, my weighted average guess for a win is 72% (80% stock goes up with a damage award and 90% odds of any damage award) and my prediction is the stock goes up 5.5.

Now we have a 10% chance the stock goes down 20 and a 18% chance (.2 * .9) the stock goes down 5 so I'd guess a 28% chance the stock goes down 2.9.

So Win 72% up 5.5 Loss down 2.9 - not very thrilling.