Here's my thought on CEPSA Kenya Ltd.
First, I'm pretty sure they are one team operating only out of Kenya. That conclusion comes simply from their name, which has the word Kenya in it.
So I don't think this subsidiary or team is doing any other country other than Kenya.
Second, I haven't been able to find any other blocks other than that of ERHC's and Swala's, which is handled by CEPSA Kenya Ltd.
Now think about this psychologically.
You are the decision maker at CEPSA Kenya Ltd.
The govt of Kenya has snubbed you in your attempts to get some Kenyan pie piece for yourself.
Through much work and effort you *finally* get two blocks. One with Swala and one with ERHC.
The Swala block is good enough for Tullow to move forward, yet after all that work and Kenyan rejection, after you finally got your prize...you decide you want to give up Swala's block.
And why? Because you wanted more time. Because Tullow, a company who once touted a greater than 80% success rate...Tullow's analysis is just not good enough.
So imagine how you must be feeling right now.
Are you about to abandon yet another block and probably end up destroying your career in the process? You are in charge of heading up CEPSA KENYA not CEPSA some other country.
You screw this up, and it's pretty much the end of your career.
But I don't think the people at CEPSA are dumb. They may be conservative, but they are not dumb.
But if they are conservative, then what conservative individual, in their right mind would give up a Swala block, in a risky move that has only one remaining Kenyan block left....
....UNLESS...
>>>>UNLESS<<<<
The big black blob in ERHC's block is way, way, way more compelling. So much so that you're willing to give up millions spent in Swala and hand back your interest back to Swala. And potentially ending CEPSA Kenya Ltd as we know it and possibly your career. You must be looking at some phenomenal seismic results in ERHC's block to do that. Either that or you have some third block in Kenya that is more promising still...but I haven't been able to find that third block.
NO ONE. NO ONE in the right mind would throw away the Tullow/Swala opportunity if charged with running CEPSA Kenya unless there was a substantial "Plan B", ESPECIALLY if you're the conservative type.
Hence, CEPSA's Plan B, our block, must be much more than encouraging. I would go so far as to say it is a bona fide humdinger.
Just my thoughts for today....which may again change tomorrow as I think about it some more.
Krombacher
