I don't know that my opinion is worth much. I've had a long standing belief that Drax was working with BMSPF based on a bunch of circumstantial evidence such as their proximity to the Drax facility at the Port of Baton Rouge, the locating of Drax Pellet Plants being apparently "planned" at a distance far enough away that it wouldn't interfere with BMSPF fiber supplies, Louisiana Economic Development approaching both Drax and BMSPF in the same manner, etc. With that being said, my circumstantial evidence has been wrong in the past with other theories I've formed.
As far as this latest news about Drax losing their subsidy appeal, I guess there's a couple of things that I tend to read between the lines. The first one being that this more lucrative subsidy will eventually go into effect, but what was being appealed was an "early release" of the subsidy for projects that would be held up waiting for red tape to be cut. My take on it is that Drax failed to demonstrate their projects would be held up and things will continue to move forward for a time when the formal subsidy is put into effect. To me this isn't a deal killer, but another potential delay.
On the other hand, the Drax argument was that the "early release" wasn't going to delay their projects, but would impact their ability to secure fiber. Presuming there is a takeoff agreement with BMSPF and it is actually BMSPF that is securing the fiber, one could argue that this directly impacts BMSPF. Deal killer, delay, or none of the above? Dunno.
Anyway, lots of assumptions and dots being connected (or misconnected). I think it will boil down to what happens later this month to see if things proceed as planned at the Port of Natchitoches. If leases are approved and signed. That would be a good sign.
Phillip
