Volume, GDS Discount, Performance, JPG, Farmouts, Production, Prospects
Volume average / Shareprice higher
HRTP3 Shares and GDS trade ~40% higher since the approval of Reverse Split and the Removal of Poison Pill. We did not get any news from who was buying, JGP is still at 19.25%. Volume is more or less the same as it was before the Reverse Split (about average).
Average Volume:
HRTP3 ~700k
HRTPY ~20k
HRP ~10k
3 to 4 days average Volume since R/S:
HRTP3 ~600k
HRTPY ~16k
HRP ~23k
GDS "Discount" dropped after R/S
The discount from HRTPY (or HRP) to HRTP3 was about 15% to 25%
the last couple of weeks (or months?).
at the moment - after the reverse split the discount is only
~ 2% for HRTPY
(13.78/2*0.45= 3.1 (Fair Price) 3.04 (Yesterdays Closing Price))
~ 3% for HRP
(13.78/2~0.48= 3.3 (Fair Price) 3.20 (Yesterdays Closing Price))
the drop in discount tells us there is more interest in buying than selling GDS at the moment, if this continues a premium to be paid for GDS is likely.
HRT is performing well since Tanure came on board,
positive outcomes are not being hidden and are already starting to be reflected by increase in shareprice, it does not seem to me as if he was trying to keep the shareprice low and force a cheap takeover price. For him as for every other shareholder there is enough money to be made by an potentially massive increase of shareprice, +500% to +1000% are possible in the mid term in my opinion, reasons are cash from farmout potential, potential increase in production volumes, potential development of gas reserves, Multi Billion Barrel potential from potentially free carried wells..
Farmouts, Production, Multi Billion Barrel Prospects
HRT is negotiating with several companies to farm down assets in Brazil and Namibia, the aim is to lower fiancial risk and finance future development for natural gas reserves in Solimoes and high risk high reward wells in Namibia. We could get news from this side any day, hundreds of millions of Dollars are possible and may result in a significant boost in shareprice.
Polvo is running well, total production in 2Q14 (~boe950k) was even higher compared to 1Q14 (~boe900k), revenues will be much higher after the acquisition from Maersk, I expect plans of development wells (to increase output) to be announced next week within the 2Q14 results and conference call.
The Meerkat prospect in Namibia is huge and gives investors the opportunity to participate in a Multi Billion Barrel drill. HRT owns 95% of the license (PEL22) and I expect a farmout within the next 6 months of max 45%, in exchange for a free carry for HRT's potentially remaining 50% share. A announcement to drill in Namibia should attract a lot more investors and may also result in a significant boost in shareprice.
GLA
