Rambus (RMBS)

[Nicdagreek]

You're making it too hard on yourself and reading too much into it. "Win" is defined by the market. If the Pop is positive, we have a "win".

In this scenario, Rambus could get a "win" in court, yet the share price *could* decline. In any event, the market will be the *true* judges if rmbs wins or not.

I didn't realize you were defining "victory" by the what the market does in response to the verdict. That seems a bit removed from the underlying question of what defines victory. To me a "victory" is translatable into later gains and it is not just a temporary bump, ala the FTC verdict.

Be that as it may, my only point was to note that there are is a lot of gray area in between the binary situation you posited, i.e. of a +12 gain and a -15 drop, because there is so much involved in defining what what is a "victory." I agree that the scenarios you chose are probably representative of a best/worse case. But I don't think we see either; I think we see a hybrid, so I don't see that kind of movement. On the positive side, I see a "semi-win" with average damages on DDR/SDRAM claims that is not going to bump more than 5 points, IMO. A more limited win with small damages and only a few SDRAM claims puts us down 10 IMO because I think the market is looking for more, and something extendable to other litigations. But I don't see a loss on validity, so -15 seems out for me.

Right now I own a nominal number of shares (10% of my portfolio), a bunch of ITM Leaps for 2007/2008 and short term MAY calls. As the trial winds down and the story more crystallized, I might gamble on some April options as well; I'm tracking their price as they should decline as we go forward and I hope to pick them more cheaply tomorrow than today.

Da Greek