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Re: Pay_tience post# 4053

Sunday, 04/02/2006 11:27:29 PM

Sunday, April 02, 2006 11:27:29 PM

Post# of 5862
PP, you don't want to repeat the same mistake I made about three years ago, that mistake wiped out almost one of my accounts, oh boy, didn't I have the same thought as you?

You probable don't remember, about three years ago, DNA had a market cap of around $10 billion, one day in after-hour, they announced the FDA had approved their cancer drug Avastin, a drug could extend some colorectal cancer patients for 6-7 months of life, it is not a curse for cancer, it has a lot of side effects too, the max market potential for the drug was $1-2 billion a year. The market was overreacted, DNA went up over 70% overnight, the price went from $30s to $50s, and the market cap went up to almost $20 billion. DNA went up like another 10% the in the second day. I shorted and bought a tons of puts on the 3rd day when it was around $60. I could vividly remember it.

In the next 10 trading days, DNA never came down below $55. At that time, almost everyone was bashing, insiders sold millions and millions of shares on the pop. Guess what, the stock price didn't drop despite all the negatives, it shoot up to $70-80 within a month, I shorted more and bought more long-term puts to average down my cost, what an expensive lesson, never do average down in options. In the end, I lost my bets on DNA when it went to $90-100 and with a market cap of $30 billions within two months. Three years later, after several spilts, DNA is still trading at $80s and with a market cap of $90 billion.

Don't feel sorry for me, lessons learnt, never trade aganist the trend, don't feel a stock is cheap if it falls like a knife, don't feel a stock is expensive if it goes up like a rocket.

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