ORMedDevRep,
I am here. It’s summer time and I like many I decided to get away for a bit. In fact, just prior to your response I had put out a post stating that I was just back from vacation.
No, I am not Steve Rosenman. If you read his stuff you will see nothing more than statements backed up by nothing. There is no logic to how he sets his targets – or maybe I am a bit unfair in saying there is no logic, but regardless, he does not share it with the public. No models, no comparisons….there might be some logic but he sure does not explain it.
As far as you being critical about my target, go ahead and be critical. I, unlike you am not an OR device sales rep, however I do have financial training and experience. I have made no claims on Titan’s technology other than to make comparisons on what is out there in the public domain and to listen to others who are professionals in the field and what they have to say. This board has been quite useful in that respect from the many comments provided by the medical professionals like yourself.
In response to your criticism, I clearly showed how I achieved my target in my model. Am I right with my target? I hope so. I simply contacted various analysts and discussed with them their financial models on similar devices (similar being used loosely) including Mako pre-takeover, Intuitive, TransEnterix, etc. I reviewed various published analyst reports on these competitors as a furtherance to my due diligence. Lastly, I created my model based on a late 2015 FDA 510(k) clearance; assuming that management meets its published deadlines. I came up with my price target of $6.90 by assigning a 50% weighting to the intrinsic value calculated from my DCF analysis (~$6.50/share) and a 50% weighting to the intrinsic value calculated from my EV/sales analysis (~$7.30/share), and like I said in the article, feel free to play around with the numbers in the matrixes to derive your own valuation.
For the record, I unlike Rosenman HATE putting time frames on my investment targets but I simply used Titan’s own stated time frame, which is public information, to try and provide some analyst-like coverage for Titan right now. In fact, it was other iHub board members that initially encouraged me to post an article on Titan and to join Seeking Alpha. Titan has no analyst coverage and no one aside from myself has attempted to give the company such a detailed valuation. Assuming Titan stays on track with their time frame, I am very comfortable with my model.
Again, my target price is based on industry comparables and how the average analyst values similar companies at similar stages to Titan and YES, my time frame is a bit of a “wild-card” as I (we) are all at the mercy of Titan and their ability to stay on track.
Being extra conservative, let’s assume Titan falls a little behind, that would bring them to February or March for a technology freeze which is, in my opinion will be the catalyst for shares to really breakout. Hopefully a NASDAQ listing will follow shortly thereafter (as soon as the listing requirements are met) and then institutional buyers will step-in and the fun will really begin. At this point it’s all up to Titan to perform. I am good with that, I am patient and I will continue to hold.
Anyway, I hope that helps clarify how I achieved my target. If you would like more info. or have more questions on my model/theory, feel free to ask.
FYI, I know you were being a little sarcastic with your 5-7 target by the end of 2014, but I would be very pleased if that did happen. As I've stated before, I understand why we are valued where we are today, but could just as easily see Titan being a $4+ stock as I write this.
Long and strong
