This is a company whose stock should be at $50 today. $50 USD. But it is at $5 because of a string of errors made with Ponatinib. If you are a legacy pre-crash holder, you should have every reason to feel scandalized by and disgusted with management. Ponatinib had brought a pps of $25 to ARIAD nearly 2 years ago, and was poised to fund the company to superstardom. Due to management's actions:
- Ponatinib potential deferred or denied for years
- Funding now conducted with 20% of the leverage preCrash
- Company and the stock set back years.
- that $25 was a bet on 1st line, now pretty much over
- A great drug totally fumbled.
While many here have given management a pass and see great things in 4 or 5 years (could happen), that's 4 or 5 years behind schedule. If ever. We spotted the competition 4 or 5 years.
One could argue that Ponatinib is on the same heading now as Ridaforalimus, having problems with its approval, now the great hope in combined therapy. Look what happened with Rida. Is Pona a better drug? Sure, but nothing is guaranteed. One good article doesn't quite warrant a dismissal of risk and huge pps predictions.
The AEs didn't disappear, listen to the AGM call. The drug causes them. Some can be mitigated, but not totally eliminated like other boards have claimed. We have a long, risky road ahead. This weekend's posts were an spiral of optimism, dismissive of reasonable risk.
The b/o rumor crashed again although I think we'll retain some of the gain. Shorty got good lesson. Anything in the $5-$6 range is a good buy-in long term (4 or 5 years). Today should have sobered folks up a bit.
We need some great news from management beyond Japan, and the pre-announced developments. We need a great molecule next or we will stagger into a somewhat higher trading range through next year. Still, a buyout gets us $20+ in 2015 or earlier.
Pfizer is unlikely. Complete overlap of Ariad's Pona and '113 drugs (Pfizer's aren't as nearly as good, but they are both approved and well past dosing ranging/reg trials, each outselling Ariad's total revs. They have a Xalk follow drug, too.
