Xeon/Opteron Pricing Exercise
Since the Dailytech article laid out prices so cleanly, I thought I'd do a little exercise comparing them to AMD's current pricing, along with expected new bins. It will give an idea of the changing competitive landscape between now and later this year. I'll even give AMD the benefit of the doubt in terms of product releases, and assume their products will waterfall under the same price points. I'll also incorrectly assume an instantaneous socket-F transition, just to make the table clearer.
The transitions indicate pre-Dempsey time frame to Dempsey time frame to Woodcrest time frame.
$1051:
DC Opteron 285 (2.6GHz) -> DC Opteron 290 (2.8GHz) -> DC Opteron 3.0GHz/F
DC Xeon 2.8GHz -> N/A -> N/A
$850-851:
DC Opteron 280 (2.4GHz) -> DC Opteron 285 (2.6GHz) -> DC Opteron 2.8GHz/F
Xeon 3.8GHz -> Xeon 5080 (Dempsey 3.73GHz) -> Xeon 5160 (Woodcrest 3.0GHz)
$690:
DC Opteron 275 (2.2GHz) -> DC Opteron 280 (2.4GHz) -> DC Opteron 2.6GHz/F
SC Opteron 254 (2.8GHz) -> SC Opteron 256 (3.0GHz) -> EOL?
Xeon 3.6GHz -> Xeon 5070 (Dempsey 3.43GHz) -> Xeon 5150 (Woodcrest 2.66GHz)
$455:
DC Opteron 270 (2.0GHz) -> DC Opteron 275 (2.2GHz) -> DC Opteron 2.4GHz/F
SC Opteron 252 (2.6GHz) -> SC Opteron 254 (2.4GHz) -> EOL?
Xeon 3.4GHz -> Xeon 5060 (Dempsey 3.2GHz) -> Xeon 5140 (Woodcrest 2.33GHz)
$316-320:
DC Opteron 265 (1.8GHz) -> DC Opteron 270 (2.0GHz) -> DC Opteron 2.2GHz/F
SC Opteron 250 (2.4GHz) -> SC Opteron 252 (2.6GHz) -> EOL?
Xeon 3.2GHz -> Xeon 5050 (Dempsey 3.0GHz) -> Xeon 5130 (Woodcrest 2.0GHz)
Low Bins:
Xeon 3.0GHz ($247) -> Xeon 3.2GHz ($247) -> Xeon 5120 (Woodcrest 1.86GHz, $260)
SC Opteron 248 (2.2GHz, $209) -> SC Opteron 250 (2.4GHz, $209) -> DC Opteron 2.0GHz/F ($209)
Xeon 2.8GHz ($193) -> Xeon 3.0GHz ($193) -> Xeon 5110 (Woodcrest 1.60GHz, $210)
SC Opteron 246 (2.0GHz, $163) -> SC Opteron 248 (2.2GHz, $163) -> DC Opteron 1.8GHz/F ($163)
My conclusion is that it looks like AMD can remain price/performance competitive and prevent market share loss if they lower their price points by 2 bins (i.e. top bin in Woodcrest time frame would be 3.0GHz @ $690, rather than $1051). Feel free to add your own comments.
It would also be interesting if someone were to do a second exercise on how such a price drop would affect AMD's ASPs, and subsequently their H2 earnings.
