One other point....
Obviously I am posting what I believe to be what might be really going on with this company.
However, my analysis is limited by what I know.
And, I want to say this.....I think the scenario I layed out, is probably the worst case scenario.
Watching the volume come into this stock below 2.00 suggests that the large scale institutions started their buybacks on their cap loss sells earlier in the year at under 2 bucks.
I am predicting 10-1 reverse split (ala Liberty) and an Aquisition of 22, as my worst case scenario.
But 15 - 35 is feasible.
I think my skepticism lies in my perspective that markets like gold can be manipulated in the short term.
Let's say the insitutions are setting up alot of M&A deals for these gold mines, (banro included) the Parent companies of these M&A deals are where the real money is, so they are the controlling factor here.
So to break it down, how can a parent company maximize their profit on buying a gold mine?
How about timing the aquisition with the bottoming of the Gold Market, and minimizing the Aquisition price?
Yup, makes a lotta sense doesn't it.
so we have gold mine companies using up common shares, with IPO's rediculously high, much of the financing and setup of the mines using shareholder's money, then with a short term manipulation of the gold market, or (a year or two), and suddenly lots of M&A activity at bargain prices while gold is bottoming.
Now if I was part of this setup, I'd want a huge county that can help me manipulate gold prices in on the deal.
Along comes China Gold, who is quoted in saying a couple years ago, that they wanted to buy some gold mines, but asset evaluations are currently too high.
Hmmmmm. now considering that picture, let's look at Banro.
China gold IS the puppet company that China INternational has setup for M&A.
China Gold ALREADY has a deal done with Banro that paid for Tangiza. (some of you might not even be aware of that)
Funny how that deal was never publicized after the fact huh.
And here we sit, lots of debt, lots of (gold price based assets)
Managment seemingly unconcerned about share price.
And our only friends, the Liberty Boys, who seem to care.
Come on people. It's obvious isnt it?
Managment will dilute share, gold prices will drop, listing will suddenly require higher share price, due to asset reevaluations when gold drops below 1200....and then Liberty starts sending the letters.
In the end, China gold buys Banro for 22 (post 10-1 split)
But the range of possibility is anywhere from 10 to 35.
Why 22 you might ask, well, I base that on where the volume picked up in 2013.
I think the volume pickup in 2013 is where insitutions started buying back their shares.
The probably have an idea where the share price will end up, and if they started buying below 2.00 and kept buying to .50 or so, their dollar cost average is probably around a buck.
if insitutions are in at let's say a buck, and options are granted to employees between .70 and .80, then you have to ask yourself, where is a buyout prices that minimizes cost to the parent (umm China Gold?) but still offers some gains for the employees and insitutions that play along.
My guess....22 (10-1 split adjusted)
Cheers!!!!!
