Wednesday, July 23, 2014 1:30:34 PM
MUCH higher than I originally was thinking based on just arbitrary "thinking" in general. But putting pen and paper together has me thinking entirely different numbers.
The price right now is .022. The market cap is $19.3MM. If we find let's say $200MM in treasure (our cut) in the next (day/week/month) then what is the stock worth? Yes, this is predicated upon getting the permit and FINDING treasure, but I am working on numbers given that we DSO find treasure. W here I should sell if things move forward in a positive way. Continuing on that answer. With $200MM in assets, the stock should not be priced below that number, but a multiple OF that number. No growth stocks are at a book value ratio of 1. But working the numbers still. With $200MM in assets, our price with a market cap of only $200MM would be about $.23. If we are at 2 times book, which is LOW but might be where we cap out at first, that is about $0.46 per share. A market cap of $400MM with assets of $200MM. That would be priced pretty low and would still attract buyers, so I think that market cap could be reached AND held. Especially if that is after a little searching and there is still more to be found. So a market cap of 4400MM is $0.46 per share.
What if we find twice that. $400MM in assets. Some say that is a low estimate for this shipwreck. But if we found that amount, could we be at $0.92? Fundamentals say "yes" in my research. I'm just throwing thoughts out there. Numbers. No one knows what will be found, so these numbers need adjusting when more is known. But for now, my thoughts say I won't sell myself short on this stock if we start moving up on the PR of a permit. And I'm NOT going to sell out just because the stock goes up to maybe a dime. I'll wait. Granted, I don't think we are going to $6 like OMEX did, but that is because I am looking at market capitalization, not stock price, and we have more shares outstanding. But I can see a price above $0.50. And if the treasure is enough off this boat, maybe twice that.
And those are numbers I would NOT have spouted until I did this objective analysis (With subjective numbers of what has been "found".) These numbers sounded impossible to me, as I too was thinking that 10 cents is 5 TIMES 2 cents, and a HUGE gain. Now? Maybe that is too short of a measuring stick. Now these much higher numbers do NOT sound unrealistic. Still need the permit AND to realize the ship IS what we think it is. But if so, these numbers are not unreasonable. Not to ME at least.
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