Risk: In the essence of time; I will simply piggyback on Jason Napadano's analyst report back from May, 2013. At that time, he projected LymPro CLIA approval in early 2015.
Whats most interesting is he valued LymPro Revenue as follows:
2015 at $2mm
2016 at $22mm
2017 at $57mm
2018 at $128mm.
Most importantly, I like his conservative estimating; but I expect the numbers will be more robust. The legwork that Gerald (and his team has invested with working with KOL's) will significantly improve the valuation early on):
My LymPro revenue projections:
2015 at $30mm
2016 at $60mm
2017 at $100mm
2018 at $240mm
I just think the ramp up to major success will take time (until they receive full blown FDA approval) in 2018.
In terms of valuation, It appears Jason N. calculated a Diagnostics division - Net Present Value at $40mm back in May 2013 and I think he will be correct in that prediction; there are always hold ups or delays that come along. So if he valued the Diagnostic division at $40mm for $128mm in project revenues in 2018 (my guess is the Diagnostic division would be worth $84mm today based on a $240mm Revenues in 2018).
In addition, he valued MANF at $77mm at that time (alot has changed). Specifically, he said any Orphan indications would add massive upside to his valuation. MANF is worth more today; my guess is $130mm in valuation. Moreover, they have added Eltoprazine which has added another $75mm (my guess).
Overall, there are so many moving parts and future unknowns as things move forward:
1) Patents
2) License fees
3) Partnerships
4) Non dilutive funding
Combined Valuation(my projection) is as follows:
1) Diagnostics division = $84mm
2) MANF = $130mm
3) Eltoprazine = $75mm (because its already in a Phase 2b)
4) Other = $30mm (Nuropro, patents, intellectual property, etc.)
TOTAL PROJECTED VALUATION = $319mm
Current stock price @ $.1345 = $99.1mm
My Analysis equates to a true estimated market cap.of $319mm which translates into a stock price of around $.42-46 today.
Cheers!
Special note: Amyvid sold for 20x Revenues (Lilly received $300 million upfront and $500 million in the backend). This valuation was right around the estimated $750 million peak market opportunity.
