Saturday, July 19, 2014 10:14:55 PM
Whats most interesting is he valued LymPro Revenue as follows:
2015 at $2mm
2016 at $22mm
2017 at $57mm
2018 at $128mm.
Most importantly, I like his conservative estimating; but I expect the numbers will be more robust. The legwork that Gerald (and his team has invested with working with KOL's) will significantly improve the valuation early on):
My LymPro revenue projections:
2015 at $30mm
2016 at $60mm
2017 at $100mm
2018 at $240mm
I just think the ramp up to major success will take time (until they receive full blown FDA approval) in 2018.
In terms of valuation, It appears Jason N. calculated a Diagnostics division - Net Present Value at $40mm back in May 2013 and I think he will be correct in that prediction; there are always hold ups or delays that come along. So if he valued the Diagnostic division at $40mm for $128mm in project revenues in 2018 (my guess is the Diagnostic division would be worth $84mm today based on a $240mm Revenues in 2018).
In addition, he valued MANF at $77mm at that time (alot has changed). Specifically, he said any Orphan indications would add massive upside to his valuation. MANF is worth more today; my guess is $130mm in valuation. Moreover, they have added Eltoprazine which has added another $75mm (my guess).
Overall, there are so many moving parts and future unknowns as things move forward:
1) Patents
2) License fees
3) Partnerships
4) Non dilutive funding
Combined Valuation(my projection) is as follows:
1) Diagnostics division = $84mm
2) MANF = $130mm
3) Eltoprazine = $75mm (because its already in a Phase 2b)
4) Other = $30mm (Nuropro, patents, intellectual property, etc.)
TOTAL PROJECTED VALUATION = $319mm
Current stock price @ $.1345 = $99.1mm
My Analysis equates to a true estimated market cap.of $319mm which translates into a stock price of around $.42-46 today.
Cheers!
Special note: Amyvid sold for 20x Revenues (Lilly received $300 million upfront and $500 million in the backend). This valuation was right around the estimated $750 million peak market opportunity.
Maybacks Adds Award Winning Show to Its Lineup Discusses Maybacks Opportunity • AHRO • Aug 22, 2024 11:30 AM
North Bay Resources Announces First Gold Concentrate at Mt. Vernon Gold Mine, Assays 12 oz/ton Gold, 17.5 oz/ton Platinum, and 8 oz./ton Silver, Sierra County, California • NBRI • Aug 22, 2024 10:28 AM
All Things Mobile Analytic, Inc. Reports Major Growth with Over $11 Million in Revenue • ATMH • Aug 22, 2024 7:19 AM
Unitronix Announces Strategic Entry into Cryptocurrency Space • UTRX • Aug 21, 2024 10:00 AM
Mawson Finland Provides Update on Exploration Activities at Rajapalot • MFL • Aug 21, 2024 9:06 AM
Avant Technologies to Implement Robust Cybersecurity Measures for AI-Driven Healthcare Solutions • AVAI • Aug 21, 2024 8:00 AM