Fannie Mae Preferred S (FNMAS)

[brandemarcus]

Ot- Syncora

I can't resist commenting on this. I think one has to look at the considerable margin of safety in Syncora with the adjusted book near 10 per share. I don't understand all the details, but I think it's a lot simpler than lehman and easier to get into.

It's also got a tax loss of 3 billion relative to market cap of 140 million. That compares quite favorably with wmih which is another investment alternative to fnma and fmcc pushed on the google group site.

A takeover by Ago is possible. It would actually boost Ago's capital ratios. Ago is one of those companies that Joe Stocks claimed would be one of the new private insurance companies to play an increased role in the new mortgage market. An investment in sycrf may even be a slight hedge on the remote possibility of government "winding down" the gse's in a big way. You might need to look for a hedge if you are involved in the common fnma in a big way.

The negative is the considerable headline risk and possible new problems in the muni sector. I think this is handled by the improved capital ratios and future litigation recoveries of up to 300 million.

There is a small dedicated group at the Ihub site and they know a lot more about the details than I do. One needs to get into the details and not just assume a company is dead. If you just paid attention to the headlines with the gse's in 2009 and 2010 where would you be today?
Of course blindly following my advice is also not a good idea. I would have encouraged you to bottom fish in the jr mining sector way too early. That's another subject that's even more off-topic than Syncora.