Noemotionseller,
I agree with 95% of what you say with the exception of your numbers.
Other takeouts in the space have been at approximately a 100% premium and not a 300% to 400% premium. If ISRG were to make a run for Titan today they might offer $5.00 per share (which I think we can all agree is way too undervalued). This is based on its current price range of $2.50 give or take a bit.
Now you see why many including myself have been critical of management to put out some type of news (without compromising the company's confidential information). The higher the price, even today, protects us all should a company come along and make a run for Titan.
Hopefully no one makes any bid for Titan in the near future because once they do their design freeze and FDA Application, that milestone should increase the valuation. As Titan continues to hit milestones, the PPS should get a complimentary bump, and risk will decrease. And so on and so forth. That being said, even post-FDA approval, premiums are only in the 100% range only - not that someone might not offer a higher premium.
If another company really wants Titan and really wants to make a statement to chase away competitive bids for Titan, then you might actually see a higher bid than the standard 100% average premium. Just my thought. Hypothetically, GE or JNJ could come in, have a look around, be very impressed with what they see and how far along Titan is, and make a substantial offer. The MedTech space has been heating up lately.
What Titan has on its side, as you suggest, are many surgeons who cannot stand ISRG as well as many other competitors who would love to get in this space. This alone might be enough to create a decent bidding war and drive the price up well past that 100% average premium takeout range.
Best scenario as you suggest is that Titan goes at it alone. However, I truly believe a large player will step in sometime after they get their FDA approval with some type of offer.
Long and strong
