PAL stock; only two things to decide whether to stay long !!!
(1) Forthcoming Palladium Price Level: We don’t even need to talk about the importance of this.
(2) Last quarter’s true “Break-Even Point” to foresee the future stock price.
Based on the earning report for Q1 2014;
Net Operating Loss: apprx. USD $23,999,400 (or CAD $26,666,000 at 0.90% exchange rate)
EPS: USD $0.11 per share (or CAD $0.10 per share at 0.90% exchange rate)
232,873.928 shares issued
42,641 oz produced and 39,485 oz sold at 84.5% of mill recovery rate
Average Sale Price: USD $739
Cash Cost: USD $492 ($422 if unexpected weather related expense)
Production Cost: USD $62 ($52 if unexpected weather related expense)
(a) Non-Cash Cost Expense (Depreciation & Amortization)
USD $9,331,200 (or CAD $10,368,000 $ 0.90% exchange rate)
(b) Non-Realized Loss on Foreign Exchange
USD $7,178,400 (or CAD $7,976,000 at 0.90% exchange rate)
(c) Unexpected Weather Related Expense
USD $2,763,950 (or $3,040,345 at 0.90% exchange rate)
With these information, the true “Break-Even Point” per ounce can be calculated out by adding back (a), (b) and (c) to Net Operating Loss;
- $23,999,400 + $9,331,200 + 7,178,400 + 2,763,950 = - $4,725,850 / 39,485 oz sold = - $119/oz loss
True “Break-Even Point” for Q1 2014 was: “USD $858/oz” (Q1 average sale price $739/oz + $119/oz loss)
NOW, with this break-even point figure for Q1 2014, and considering all other current market trend and situation, the decision to long the stock, to get out or even to short is for you to make, not self-serving Fun Trading at Seeking Alpha. Don’t get manipulated as the unethical and unlawful activity will be laid bare and revealed soon !!!
