I still hope that VRNG gets $1+ per handset. I don't know of anyone that has insight into what price VRNG is trying to license this for. Not even sure where the .80 estimate came from, but it sounds reasonable.
I presume that VRNG is also asking for $.80 per handset sold in the past using the Nokia technology.
ZTE handset sales
2011 - 12M
2012 - 30M
2013 - 40M
2014 (est) - 60M
2015 (est) - 80M
2016 (est) - 100M
So .80 for each handset 2011-2014Q2 would be $90M. Remove the Nokia split after the $22M is recovered and that is roughly $65M
Future revenues after nokia split
2014Q3&4 - $16M
2015 - $41M
2016 - $52M
$174M for 2011-2016
But, does the Nokia technology only apply to ZTE? Once we get a license agreement with ZTE, there is the potential that we tell Huawei, LG, Lenovo, HTC they need to pay the same license fee.
LG and Huawei are both rising in handset sales. Combined they had
43M in 2011, 58M in 2012, and 100M in 2013.
That would be another $100M for past licensing and over $200M in future licensing.
$300M for 2011-2016
for a total of almost $.5B from all three through 2016.
Just the Nokia patents have the potential to make this $19 PPS by end of 2015.
GOOG could put another $12 to $24 on top of that depending on how that appeals play out.
It is hard for me to find rationale for this to ever go below $3 PPS unless both GOOG and ZTE fail to happen (how unlikely is that).
I had previous thought $18 was a good target for the PPS, but now I see that $30+ is a real possibility with very little downside potential.
