you wrote, "Weekly sentiment numbers flashing strong sell, but could just be sideways into the fall, unless the economy is weaker than expected, and expectations are pretty low."
The economy IS weaker than expected - much weaker...
We've already seen the final revision of the 1st qtr GDP down to -2.9 and here we are in the last week of 2nd qtr. We've seen the PPI and the CPI climbing, which is or at least should be a drag on the 2nd qtr stat - we know the consumer spending is weak - we've been seeing companies coming through with weak info and guidance (DD). These are all foreshadowing events...
I have been looking alot at historical charts and how the GDP and markets acted during "flat periods"... IF the GDP is weakening, THEN the market would most likely take a solid hit - if history is any indicator...
BUT these are different times, to say the least...
The next dominoes to fall would be tensions in the Middle East to NOT calm - more companies coming out with more uncertainty - analysts to start reducing their estimates / forward expectations...
I think it WILL happen - I don't see how it can't - the US trying to continue to bully Russia and others will only come back on us...
EVERYTHING is coming to a decision point here - I feel there's much more risk and downside potential than reward here... but we can only sit and wait - watching for the negative formations and they're just not there yet...
I work in this industry and have access to sweet data - I am just watching and waiting...
