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Re: Fizzman post# 79859

Thursday, 06/26/2014 11:35:04 AM

Thursday, June 26, 2014 11:35:04 AM

Post# of 123646
Granted, but ANY new company let alone a public company which this one clearly shouldn't be, must either have profits immediately or some other form of capitalization. 99% of company failures come as a result of under capitalization. Furthermore, it's very hard for me to grasp your concept of "new company" given their big company habits like big salaries, sponsorships, infomercials, stock promotions, etc. If they were working out of their garage with belts tightened grinding it out I'd give them a chance but they're not. They're living large, spending like drunken sailors and you've got to question the fact they're sitting on millions upon millions of zero cost basis stock. In a true small company start up the stock should be all they get, period. These guys are playing it like they're the next Diagio or LVMH. Additional product lines, huge contracts, promotions. It just doesn't add up and I simply can't see anything that signifies it can survive.

To add, there was some math posted that was just not thought out that inferred far more product resource than could possibly exist in reference to inventory and subsequent gross sales based on the only container shipped this year. Let's look at that. The shipment math is just wrong and misleading. Given the gross weight, if the shipment weighs 30,000 pounds as stated the bottle count would be a maximum of 6000 bottles. A 750 ml bottle of vodka weighs 3.5 pounds so conservatively I'd estimate a 1.5 l bottle would come in at no less than 5 pounds. Ok, 6000 bottles at gross sales of $30 bucks a shot is $180,000. Gross margin at the ridiculous stated 46%, but whatever, is $80,000. After expenses, salaries, taxes, etc.? Well over $50,000. You're looking at a very iffy $30,000 in profit or an annual run rate of $360,000. This is not even taking into account loans, existing payables, back payroll taxes, etc. let's give it the benefit of the doubt, double it and call it $720,000 in net profit which would amount to a share value of $.002 per share. And let's not forget that I'm making the far fetched assumption they sell through everything in 30 days. From the looks of the true math based on facts and conservative assumptions and giving the benefit of the doubt to the company on each issue, I'd say the latest sell off of stock is pretty astute and most likely an indication of things to come. There just aren't enough resources to pull off anything more significant. So the bottom line is with no money, no product, big expenses and no other resources it can't be done under any existing common sense business operation. What I actually think is that the shipment in question will last the whole year and this years sales will be in the 200-300k region with a loss over a million leaving the company close to 2 million in debt with no capital or resources at the start of Q1 2015. Mark my words and we'll take a look at it again Q4.