Broad Strokes
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Here are some of the trends that will be shaping our world. Will refine these ideas and begin linking them to investment opportunities as we go.
1. Peak oil and the transition to alternative energy
2. The retirement of the baby boom generation
3. The popping of the debt bubble. Right now the trend is still up.
4. Trading and investing automation
5. Automation competing with human workers
6. Biotechnology
7. Economic expansion in China, India, and third-world countries
8. Terrorism, anti-terrorism, security
9. Precious metals
10. Competition for commodities, basic materials of all kinds
Many of the above are related and interrelated in interesting and intricate ways. Many of the above themes suggest insecurity, and this has led to the rise in precious metals. Biotechnology and terrorism are connected and will lead to an increased need for sophisticated detection systems. The bull market in commodities is directly linked to the economic expansion of third-world countries.
Exploring these ideas and linking them to investment opportunities may seem difficult. What I have noticed, however, is that every time I begin to focus in on this subject, I am able to discern the next major trends with extraordinary accuracy. I want to begin laying out some principles for doing this, so that we can work together and do it better than ever before.
Here is the first principle: In any 5- or 10-year year period, civilization is always giving birth to the next big thing. There is always a dominant theme emerging with dozens of smaller trends--related and unrelated. The way to capitalize on this principle is to pay attention to what really grabs your attention. What do you really want now? What do young people really want now? What are your friends and neighbors excited about? What is making the leading technology magazines buzz? Even if it is nothing, that's a message, a signal concerning the spirit of the times. Pay attention to any surprising twists to your answers. In the 1980s and 90s, what we really wanted was a computer and an internet connection. What is it now? Security? Economic security? New ways of earning a living? Vehicles powered by alternative fuels?
Here is a second principle: Certain trends are inexorable, inevitable, relentless, unstoppable. These are the major trends. Sometimes they are so big and obvious we miss them. An example would be the rise of the automobile--and everything related--during the 20th century. The economic consequences of China and India fit this category. The aging of the baby boom generation also does.
Here is the third and most important principle: Trends that make great investments are verifiable. Their charts tell a story. They speak the language of success even before they have fully unfolded. The cup-and-handle chart is just one example. If all you did was look for great cupping or otherwise bullish long-term charts, and report your findings here, this board would become enormously valuable.
T.
