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Friday, June 13, 2014 6:45:21 PM
Anyway, I'll paste all of CHG's post:
That is the "most likely" scenario, IMO.
Remember that this is a JV, not a purchase agreement. It's hard to say if there is a final "buy out" clause at the end or what that amount would be or if there are other end of JV payments such as to contribute to production so there is no use speculating on that. (One could note from the Partner A JV agreement that "up to" $500M was required from the group to put the mountain into production). See here: http://medinah-minerals.com/shareholder.html Aug 19, 2011.
The drill program is probably something like we have seen the last couple of times. Partner A was an initial $24M - $14M for drilling and $10M to MMC. Partner B was not a JV but a buyout of 85% of the mountain - 7 minimum payments of $18M plus $5M of initial drilling. (this drop from $14M to $5M initial drilling should have been another big clue to all of us).
I would expect the drilling required of a JV at this point to be at least as big as Partner A, probably bigger. A multi-year program is normal, 3 to 5 years, ending with some type of resource report or even a Preliminary Economic Analysis. I would expect at least that. So I think it would be reasonable in light of all of the above, and the advancement on the mountain in the last several years, to expect some $25M to $50M total drill / payment program with potentially some end of contract terms such as a buyout, or some next steps to increase the percentage of the property owned etc.
I would think if they have formed a new company with multiple entities particpating this is either viewed as a "seed" for an actual production consortium years down the road, or if it does not include multiple significant mining companies and is primarily a Letts led investment venture that includes financial investors but not mining companies, then this new company is probably viewed as a company that itself will be bought out after the JV when it owns some portion of the mountain.
I am still hopeful through it all we get a big Name or Names. That will be the final nail in the coffin of the the former paradigm. But either way, once money starts to flow our direction and the general terms are known a new day will start.
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