Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Zargis]

The hourly trend was temporarily broken. I have not had time to chart everything and honestly have not been trading FNMA - hence have not reviewed it consistently as of late.

Overall, the following summary can be considered:

First and foremost, we should hold $4.37-$4.39 area. However, if for some reason it does not... the ranges below are $4.21-$4.30, and of course the $4.03-4.05-4.08 range.


DAILY:

RSI 14/4 are roughly middle ground - both between 58 and 48. No indication.
Williams %-R sits at -48%, again - no indication of up or down movement.

There is an ascending triangle that matures fully (comes to a point) roughly between 6/30/2014 and 7/4/2014. (after this, it would be forced into a very tight range of a mere few pennies difference.)


Hourly:

Indicators (RSI / williams %-R both indifferent as with the daily - middle ground)

If $4.42 breaks, it could mean an immediate retrace of the 200-bar hourly SMA - if $4.37-$4.39 area does not also hold. (Currently at $4.35)

If the 200 bar breaks, which, has not occurred since April 28th (not even tested since early may) then we would potentially have a decent and unforseen drop.


Tomorrow, we will need to stay over initially $4.49 on the first hour, followed by 1-2 pennies up per hour or retrace to at least $4.45.


The hourly PSAR (if price maintains the same levels) should flip in about 2 days. (10-12 hourly bars)

Right now, it is key to get back above $4.58 and maintain a level between $4.58 and $4.67 (a strong range as it is contained within the $4.40-$4.71 range.)

Hopefully this helps.


It should also be noted that the GSEs are supposed to submit a payment by 6/30/2014 - to the treasury.

Be well,

-Zargis


p.s.

I cannot predict exact price a day or more in advance. Exact price prediction can only be guaranteed in 'the moment' of movement, and, based still on probability of resistance or support ranges. i.e. you can assume one will be touched first, however, if it breaks the one below will be tapped as well.