Petro Rio S.A. ADR fka HRPTY

[VanWilder]

HA !! Nothing. I doubt we get a formal PR before the end of the month. However, there is ongoing speculation that they have already passed the first couple targets. see below

Note, a lengthy post so scroll to the bottom for reservoir target dates if you want to skip the preamble.

Poetical was right quoting the figures from p24 of the original CPR, you can download from here:
http://www.towerresources.co.uk/investor/files/Namibia_Licence0010_Tower_CPR_Letter.pdf

To repeat what Poetical posted, the distance remaining to the apex of the reservoirs from the drill distance at the point of the BOP issue of 1879m is:

P 91m
M 231m
UC 271m
CW 351m
A 651m

Note the closing contour for the A reservoir is 2600m so the remaining drill depth to the bottom of A is 721m.

With regards drill depths we know that between re-spud on 01 May and BOP issue (reported by Rowan as 19 May) the RR drilled 1879m less 1000m water = 879m of rock in 19 days, including casings, a drill rate of roughly 50m per day.

The original problem with the slumped well head was not reported so I am assuming this would not have affected the overall drill timescales of 46 days.

The problem with the BOP was reported because of the considerable delay which turned out to be 16 days from 19 May to 4 June.

Since the drill is still expected to be completed within budget, therefore I assume the same drill timescales with Rowan paying the bill for the delay, then adding the 16 days to the original 46 takes us to a target end date of 24 June.

In other words there is a total of 20 days from the drill recommence on 4 June and the new target end date of 24 June.

IF the RR drills all the way to the finish, i.e. the A reservoir then to complete the well the RR would need to drill a total of 721m (to the bottom of A), a drill rate of 36m per day.

SO, we can surmise that the drill rate will be between 36m and 50m. Any slower than 36m average all the way to the bottom and the well will go beyond the target end date. 50m was the distance drilled in the first section of the well to 1879m.

Based on these assumptions we can reasonably expect the reservoirs to be penetrated on the following dates:

P from 05 Jun to 06 Jun
M from 08 Jun to 10 Jun
UC from 9 Jun to 11 Jun
CW from 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A from 17 Jun to 22 Jun

We know that positive results from P and M will lead to continued drilling; otherwise on negative results in P and M drilling will stop.

So, given that tomorrow is 10 Jun, based on the above, we can reasonably expect that P has already been drilled and M will be reached by latest tomorrow (assuming no delays).

As already stated by Poetical, if RR is still on location and tight hole status remains (therefore assume drilling continues) by the end of this week I think that would be a very positive sign indeed.