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Tuesday, June 10, 2014 9:33:06 AM
DPS: I apologise. I see you did respond. I didn't realise. You wrote "I am sure we will have several contracts signed and more NDA's in train. We will have contracts on more than one product line. Our cash position will be greatly improved and we will be trading on the NASDAQ. ... Share price??? Who knows. It'll be north of $5:00. This is a conservative guess."
Tpsully: I don't know. That's why I asked others who have followed the company longer and know more about it.
I think it is reasonable to suspect that, in a worst case, we will still be roughly where we are now: waiting. I think there will be an announcement about the first Upstream pilot test sometime during summer - however, unless it is a known company and a nice sum, I don't know if it will move the dial on the share price much.
Midstream
I don't know why any other Midstream firm would jump on board before it's clear that TransCanada has accepted it. by the end of July we will know whether they intend to go for an extended term. If they do not it means one of two things: they intend to discontinue use of the AOT, or they intend to, in the following months, purchase the units and perhaps put in a more significant order. (I.e. I think we can rule out that it does not work, or they would have canceled before now, and certainly before July 31.)
However, I'm not clear what happens in September (end of pilot) and they have not put in an order. I'm just assuming that there are only two ways this goes: it is adopted by industry, or it isn't. No one would simply keep using one rig of AOTs. But would they make that procurement decision before or after the pilot term ends? I have no clue. What if they simply plan to run the Initial Term test, then evaluate all that six months of data, then commission a study, then form a committee, and come up with a procurement plan - which could take months.
But they could also elect for an Extended Term on July 31, or they could put in a larger order at any time.
Upstream
And I don't know why any other Upstream firm would jump on board until one of them had run a successful pilot. If that is the case, and if the pilot is six months, there will not be additional clients, or a major Upstream contract, before the end of the year.
However: maybe that is wrong. Maybe three major Upstream firms will sign up all at once.
In short, I would not be surprised or disappointed if we were where we still are now, with a little more promise on the Upstream front, by the end of the year.
However, I would also not be surprised if DPS's prediction came true.
One thing worth noting, is that if TRP elects for an Extended Term, and we get a good Upstream pilot, that could actually be enough to push us above $2. I guess that's possible. And once there is an uplist announced, it's game over. I would love to see that. But we'd only have 3 months to reach that situation, because I believe one needs to be above $2 for three months before uplisting.
I am really just hoping for some definitive analysis that makes me sure that we'll be at $5, with multiple contracts, by the end of the year.
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