Mexus Gold US (MXSG)

[TMLonggun]

GiantSeaBear pointed out that Mexus has posted both high and low production projections.

http://www.mexusgoldus.com/files/doc_downloads/caborca_mine/Julio%20Summary%20Sheet%20Low.pdf

http://www.mexusgoldus.com/files/doc_downloads/caborca_mine/Julio%20Summary%20Sheet%20High.pdf

Still digesting the numbers but at a glance I noticed:

They are using a half oz/t for their average mill grade.

In general the timeliness have been pushed back since DP's update.

The main difference between the two is the estimated start of mining date, beginning in August for the high case and October for the low.

There is a massive increase in tonnage as they ramp up from 2325 to nearly 10k tonnes milled in a month (four months in).

The heap leach is massively delayed and start up appears to be a year to a year and a half away in the future. This seems odd considering the low construction times needed for MC facilities and pads in general. They note they need to complete drilling and pit design. Hopefully they are just being conservative, but the large amount of high grade milling partially makes up for it.

The placer tonnage will increase a lot.

Positive cash-flow begins in 4 months from production or 6 in the low case.

Total production estimated between 56,000-75,000 GEO in 2015 for around 60M flow - 20M in expenses for a pre-tax profit of around 40M of which we probably must give away half to our mysterious partner. 20M x 10 PE = 200M market cap or .77/share fair value at current gold prices which assigns a value of 0 to Mexus' exploration potential, property, equipment, and minerals in the ground. At $2000/oz we will probably meet some of the insane sounding projections first bandied about here. Like usual whining is less profitable than being right and sitting tight.

Our short term movement here depends on our split and how this deal is structured. Fingers crossed.