Let's do some math...
Let's say there are $105 million in contracts which numerous folks have claimed are closed and "already sold". Let's extrapolate what that means in expenses. At an overly generous 50% gross margin that would equate to 766,000 cases. I don't know what it costs to produce almost 800,000 cases of Vodka but let's say COG is around $70 or 50% of the $140 case price I've seen. Cost of goods, just for the booze is around $53,000,000. Then you've got import/export duty and tariffs, packing, local and international shipping and freight, holding and warehousing costs and probably a whole bunch of other expenses. Let's call it a measly $10M (10%) although I'm sure it would be much more than that especially considering the international aspect (the import duty in Brazil is astronomical. As much as 80%) I would bet the cardboard alone for the boxes will run more than a million dollars and these are all up front costs. Really doesn't matter for the point I'm going to make.
The $64 million question is how does a company with no cash reserves, no branding, advertising or marketing to speak of, three or four domestic employees and no inventory as of their last published financials launch and fulfill these international contracts they claim to have let alone COSTCO et. al. domestically? The numbers do not add up. It's business 101. Simple math to boot. No one is going to front the launch. No one is going to factor the paper because there isn't a distributor in the world that will do so which is the same reason no one would be willing to back the paper. So if these contracts are real Marani would have to come up with one HUGE pile of cash.
Here's my bet and it is of course pure speculation. The company has no real sales contracts. All hype. They've got enough, by the skin of their teeth, to produce a couple hundred cases and buy a bunch of paid infomercials targeted at promoting not the product, but the stock. They throw around contracts worth a supposed $105M and names like COSTCO which by the way is not hard to get into as some have said, and the no cost basis the principals have turned their hundred millions of shares of stock into currency. They pull out a couple of million in stock sales while they keep the thing on life support, keep the financials a secret as long as possible and continue to pump it for all they can until the poop hits the fan than close down shop, disappear again and perhaps take a slap on the wrist from the SEC three years down the road and maybe pay a small fine if anyone files suit.
Bottom line is just do the math and look at the metrics. The entire prospect of they're proposing is preposterous both in the math and basic business operations. So I ask again, where is the $50M plus, at minimum needed to pull this off going to come from and where has the money for the current production and activity come from. Even more basic, How is Dan Senters and Magrit and family getting paid? You guys really need to look at the business proposition at this point not the stock play because the stock play has a short shelf life. When the facts and truth come out, the play is over and real financials will be the only driving factor as it is in any public company and the "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" strategy becomes obsolete.
