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Thursday, May 29, 2014 4:23:22 PM
Then you have to figure in the other lawsuits:
* AT&T (geolocation infringement)
* T-Mobile (geolocation infringement)
* Uniden (cordless phone infringement)
* Vtech (cordless phone infringement)
* Juniper (routing and switching product/services infringement)
For the last three years, Juniper's revenues related to this infringement is approx $10 Billion... per the original complaint.
Hypothetically, a 1% royalty on past damages alone for all the infringers would be well above half a billion dollars. That's not even taking into account future royalties which could extend well into the next decade based on the expiration of the asserted patents. Moreover, SPEX is asserting that infringement (by CSCO and JNPR) is willful which opens up the possibility (small as it may be) that enhanced damages are on the table.
Now, before everyone gets too excited, the public is once again underestimating the capital structure of SPEX. There were approx 26 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis BEFORE today's news of 10 million shares of Series J preferred convertibles.
These IP stocks trade on perception. And the uncertainty related to the timing of litigation will create massive volatile moves and sentiment will change back & forth many times over. Don't blindly buy a stock like SPEX and treat it as a core long term holding. Those that did this yesterday lost about half of their money overnight. Or at the very least, could have saved themselves half of their basis had they waited a mere 24 hours to pull the trigger.
I was promoting this stock under $2 because I knew it was going to pop. I took profits because the pop came on news (or lack thereof) that was not fundamentally tied to the company's bottom line or specific chances to prevail in its current litigation campaigns. Once the dust settles, I may re-visit SPEX. But for now I think it's trading on misinformation and a tremendous amount of misunderstanding by those who are ignorant to the realities of intellectual property investments.
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